Decay watch: February 4

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 4 Feb 1999 20:36:32 +0000

The latest SpaceCom decay notices are:


Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC

#23529 = Intelsat 705 Centaur r   Feb  4 09:19     Feb  6 09:47 +-1d

#22584 = GPS 2-19 r2              Feb  4 06:09     Feb 11 05:45 +-4d

               -------------------------------

The current elset for #23529...

Intelsat 705 Centaur r                           944 x 117 km
1 23529U 95013B   99035.73739869  .18556815  00000-0  62435-3 0   473
2 23529  26.5728 189.0325 0598066 276.0760  77.2146 15.11918637 62594

... shows it running 5 seconds late on the prediction I posted here
yesterday.

A new analysis, again using my new version of SatEvo, leads to decay at
February 6.60 (14:18 UTC +-9h).

New prediction:

Intelsat 705 Centaur r                           881 x 120 km
1 23529U 95013B   99036.00064771  .19862844  22622-1  72362-3 0 90474
2 23529  26.5709 187.2327 0553594 279.0942  74.6858 15.21839477 62638
Intelsat 705 Centaur r                           747 x 118 km
1 23529U 95013B   99036.52164135  .24568770  40806-1  73715-3 0 90470
2 23529  26.5665 183.5865 0461553 285.2086  69.7352 15.44745317 62713
Intelsat 705 Centaur r                           578 x 115 km
1 23529U 95013B   99037.03404359  .34619794  10688+0  77918-3 0 90478
2 23529  26.5611 179.8650 0344021 291.4499  64.9158 15.74249360 62790

               -------------------------------

The latest published elset for #22584, which SpaceCom calls "NAVSTAR 31
R/B(PAM-D)", is:

GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            965 x 113 km
1 22584U 93017D   99035.70232466  .04417333  00000-0  11930-3 0  1812
2 22584  34.4778 160.1555 0616336  13.0277 348.6079 15.09147566135688

My prediction is for its decay at February 11.8 +-1.5 day.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/