flare droughts

Tyler MacKenzie (mackentd@is.dal.ca)
Thu, 19 Feb 1998 23:14:24 -0400 (AST)

Quinster7@aol.com wrote:
I have noticed this too - maybe the area on the earth's surface that gets
more flares in a given month migrates around the planet, much like the
area where Mir is visible (or any satellite for that matter).
I too have been wondering about the temporal distribution of flares for a
given site.  Last month here in Halifax, Nova Scotia was real bad for
flares, but I am now enjoying bright ones (-3 and better) several times a
week, BUT ONLY IN THE MORNINGS. I've only had one -2 in the evening in the
past c.15 days.  I am wondering if, assuming the planes stay fixed
relative to the sun (and from here the background constellations), not
precessing through the heavens, then the elongation of any plane from
the sun would change as the sun tracked through the zodiac. As there are
(when finished) six planes and twelve months in a year, I would expect
a peak of local flare activity every 2 months for a PARTICULAR time of
day; the width of this peak I would further expect to be dependent upon
the window of viewing opportunity per day (twilight).
However, because there are two long viewing windows (morning and evening)
and several (3?) ideal elongations for flares per satellite (three
antennae), and the angles for modest flares somewhat forgiving (1/2
degree) I would also expect such a two month periodicity would be smoothed
out by "noise" and not be so obvious.

Tyler (Joe Stats) MacKenzie
Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada
44.636N 63.595W 50m ASL