Decay predictions, mina and NASA's (last week)

Bjorn Gimle (bjorn.gimle@online.dextel.se)
23 Feb 1996 20:21:56 GMT

SUBJECT:   60-Day Decay Forecast
 
Effective February 15, 1996, the objects listed below are forecasted to
decay within the next 60 days on the date indicated:
 
INTERNATIONAL                                  CATALOG    FORECASTED
DESIGNATION            NAME                    NUMBER    DECAY DATE
 
1993 063H          FSW-1 Capsule Payload       22870     March 02
1971 015AZ         Cosmos 397 debris           05244     March 10
1994 014D          SL-14 Debris                23022     March 29
1995 039B          SL-06 Rocketbody (1)        23633     April 01
1983 075J          Cosmos 1484 Debris          22892     April 03
 
      The following are NASA spacecraft decaying within the time frame of
this report:
 
1995 004C          Oderacs 2A Payload        23471     February 24
 
There is no indication that the ODERACS decay date is correct -
I believe Mar.18. The decay has progressed very normally since
Aug.-95 , even an early fits very close to the extrapolation
backwards.

For FSW-1, my computations give March 06, not 01 as NASA's prediction.
For #05244 we agree. For #23022 I have Mar.22, for #22892 Mar.31.

I also have #20042 89-41C, #23193 94-47B and #21794 91-79F in 
March-April ? , and #15489 85-07F around April 24.

The Soyuz TM-23 rocket may decay around 1630 UT on Saturday 
Feb.24. :
Soyuz TM-23 rk 23799
1 23799U 96011B   96054.54079388  .02904080  12242-4  42644-3 0   122
2 23799  51.5974 337.8999 0008583  69.2802 290.9061 16.33628832   326
 

------------------------------------------------------------
-- bjorn.gimle@online.dextel.se    +46-8-7428086  (home)  --
-- bjorn@tt-tech.se                +46-8-59095789 (office)--
-- 59.22371 N, 18.22857 E          AND member of :        --
-- seesat-l@iris01.plasma.mpe-garching.mpg.de             --
------------------------------------------------------------

 

************ Sent via DN Online (Sweden) UUCP Gateway **************