DECAYS

bjorn.gimle@duesenberg.se
Fri, 24 Feb 95 13:46:47

                                              

Tiros 10 debris C appears to be surfing on the atmosphere, or 
something almost as strange has happened at NORAD/NASA.
Yesterday's 5 last elsets are issues 938-941, and 944.
Where are 942-943 ? Even more peculiar is the negative MMdot2 for
the two latest, and the fact that MM appears to have remained 
almost constant for day 45-51, though MMdotdot6 is positive
(but too small ?) The three "normal" elsets show a change of 0.06 
in MM for one day, which means that MMdot2 is already underestimated.
These three elsets, with some older back to day 37, and my 
extrapolation program, give a decay on day 46.
Element set number = 2
1 01440U 65051C   95051.32470887 -.00001005  31792-5  00000+0 0  9448
2 01440  98.4960  22.7446 0042798 156.8994 203.5306 16.32979416594649
Element set number = 1
1 01440U 65051C   95047.28016830 -.00001008  31875-5  00000+0 0  9414
2 01440  98.4960  17.3661 0042798 173.1298 186.8020 16.32971672593985
Element set number = 4
1 01440U 65051C   95044.89145857  .02818928  31687-5  82801-3 0  9401
2 01440  98.5731  14.1263 0027353 207.3725 159.7831 16.26134615593980
Element set number = 3
1 01440U 65051C   95044.64477829  .01633879  31475-5  71876-3 0  9393
2 01440  98.5384  13.8321 0009872 164.9806 195.0943 16.22322688593947
Element set number = 5
1 01440U 65051C   95043.90435809  .01522750  31178-5  79187-3 0  9380
2 01440  98.5185  12.8175 0018295 225.0313 137.1199 16.19857332593825

Here are some decay notes/estimates :

Need more elsets:      
      23471
      23472
      23473
      23475
      23497
      23499
Already decayed ? :
2/12? 22998
2/15? 01440
2/16? 23072
2/18? 23478
    ? 14199
Decaying soon :
2/25  22995
2/28  23474
3/03  21868
3/04  22994
3/10? 20927
3/16  23498
3/18  23102
4/10? 23453
4/16  21190
5/    22278
Highly elliptic orbits, for which I do not extrapolate:
E     14130
E     21045
E     21058
E     21555
E     23015
E     23306