NROL-71 orbit estimates

From: Marco Langbroek via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Fri, 14 Dec 2018 18:11:26 +0100
Hi all,

If something doesn't go wrong again, NROL-71 will finally be launched from
Vandenberg SLC-6 on December 19 (December 18 local time for the US) near 1:57 UT.

Ted recently already discussed the peculiarities of this launch. It might be an
electro-optical payload, but in an unusual, ~74 degree inclined and (surprise)
non-sunsynchronous orbit.

Here are a couple of potential search orbits for NROL-71 assuming launch on 19
December 2018, 1:57 UT:

For KH-11-like orbital altitudes but 74-degree inclined non-sunsynchronous:


NROL-71 265 x 1000 km                                      KH-11-like
1 70001U 18999A   18353.08125000  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
2 70001 074.0000 189.3102 0524203 155.2439 326.4145 14.78994708    02

NROL-71 265 x 500 km                                       KH-11-like
1 70002U 18999A   18353.08125000  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    04
2 70002 074.0000 189.3102 0173800 155.2439 324.5345 15.61785606    05

NROL-71 265 x 455 km                                       KH-11-like
1 70003U 18999A   18353.08125000  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    05
2 70003 074.0000 189.3102 0140989 155.2439 324.3567 15.69614809    06


#70003 best fits the RAAN precession that Ted in his analysis deduced from the
change in launch time with date.


A last option is this one, for a Lacrosse-like orbital altitude but 74-degree
orbital inclination:


NROL-71 715 x 725 km                                    Lacrosse-like
1 70004U 18999A   18353.08125000  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    06
2 70004 074.0000 189.3662 0007044 155.2265 327.0336 14.51731413    04


I noted that the inclination of the first generation FIA radars, launched into
123 degree inclined orbits, was basically the retrograde complementary of the
prograde 57-degree inclination of Lacrosse 5.

The first of the new generation FIA radars (FIA R5) was recently launched into a
106 degree inclination: and coincidence or not, this is the retrograde
complementary of the prograde 74-degree inclination now indicated for NROL-71.

Hence, I wonder whether the payload could perhaps be a Lacrosse-like Radar,
although there is many to be said against that option.

Ted's option for a 265 x 455 km KH-like orbit (i.e. #70003) fits the Hazard
Areas very well, so is likely the best option.

The orbits above give evening twilight visibility from NW Europe on the first
day (December 19) plus some very low morning passes.

- Marco


-----
Dr Marco Langbroek  -  SatTrackCam Leiden, the Netherlands.
e-mail: sattrackcam_at_langbroek.org

Cospar 4353 (Leiden):     52.15412 N, 4.49081 E (WGS84), +0 m ASL
Cospar 4355 (Cronesteyn): 52.13878 N, 4.49937 E (WGS84), -2 m ASL
Station (b)log: http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com
Twitter: _at_Marco_Langbroek
-----
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Received on Fri Dec 14 2018 - 11:12:16 UTC

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