RE: Soyuz TMA-19M launch orbit estimations

From: Max White via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 2015 16:03:03 +0000
Concur with that, clear voice but clipped conversation - usual 'Very good, I hear you' ; also was OK for elsets on Rev 2, but in the murk somewhat, We now have satcats for the pieces 41124 and 25.
Max M0VNGKettering Group

> Date: Tue, 15 Dec 2015 15:54:56 +0000
> To: seesat-l_at_satobs.org
> Subject: RE: Soyuz TMA-19M launch orbit estimations
> From: seesat-l_at_satobs.org
> 
> Comms heard on 121.75 MHZ from 15:39 - 1542 UTC here at south coast of UK (50.58N, 1.21W)
> 
> Cheers.
> 
> ======= On 14-Decamber-2015, 22:59:24 you wrote: =======
> 
> >TsUP published the delta-v maneuver data:
> >
> >http://www.mcc.rsa.ru/sojuztma_19m/start.htm
> >
> >So, this is the revised estimation:
> >
> >Hello all;
> >
> >The Soyuz TMA-19M spacecraft is expected to take off tomorrow 2015/12/15 at
> >11:03:09 UTC from Tyura-Tam Gagarin's pad. It will fly with the Soyuz-FG
> >rocket and they will try the fast 4-orbits renzezvous. Docking is aimed to
> >be at 17:24:09 UTC +- 3 minutes.
> >
> >This TLE is the initial orbit estimation, just after spacecraft release
> >after SC separation from rocket, about nine minutes after launch:
> >
> >
> >SOYUZ-TMA 19M #0                                         198 X 214 km
> >1 70000U 15500A   15349.46667824 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    05
> >2 70000  51.6440 259.2934 0011851  54.4267  28.0135 16.25069103    09
> >
> >Epoch is set at spacecraft separation & orbit enter time.
> >
> >At 11:48:15 UTC is expected to occur the fisrt maneuver. This orbit is
> >valid from first maneuver till the second one, at 12:32:29 UTC:
> >
> >SOYUZ-TMA 19M #1                                         214 X 295 km
> >1 70001U 15501A   15349.49306713 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    07
> >2 70001  51.6439 259.1479 0061649 228.9167   7.9357 16.07220174    07
> >
> >At 12:32:29 UTC the second maneuver will be made. This elset is valid from
> >this time till ~13:06 UTC:
> >
> >SOYUZ-TMA 19M #2                                         294 X 296 km
> >1 70002U 15502A   15349.52362269 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    01
> >2 70002  51.6439 258.9836 0001643 293.3363 120.3768 15.92638602    02
> >
> >There are no more data on TsUP's page about the burns. Hoewer, this third
> >elset could be reasonably close since 13:06 UTC till near-docking times:
> >
> >SOYUZ-TMA 19M #3                                         295 X 375 km
> >1 70003U 15503A   15349.54670139 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    03
> >2 70003  51.6441 258.8618 0059201 185.5872   0.5206 15.78391758    01
> >
> >Time uncertainty is expected to be about a minute since launch till docking
> >and several degrees on track error on high elevation skies.
> >
> >
> >Soyuz-FG's third stage should re-enter in the next few days.
> >
> >
> >There are good passes over Europe about 1-2 hours before docking. Also,
> >there are good visual passes over Asia in the first two revolutions,
> >specially over Baikonur.
> >If clouded, Marco Langbroek informed on Twitter about the frequencies of
> >the Soyuz, that they are activated on Netherlands because the spacecraft
> >enters in range of russian tracking stations:
> >
> >https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/675378691015340032
> >https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/675378849149005826
> >
> >
> >Be good!
> >
> >Jon.
> 
> 
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Received on Tue Dec 15 2015 - 10:13:16 UTC

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