RE: Optical 17 Dec 2013

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Thu Dec 19 2013 - 18:52:47 UTC

  • Next message: C. Bassa: "CB Obs December 19, 2013"

    Given the object's brightness, it might be a Titan-Centaur from one of the three Trumpet launches. 94026B / 23098 and
    97068B / 25035 have decayed. We never knowingly observed 95034B / 23610. Based on its likely approximate initial orbit,
    I believe that it may survive in orbit.
    
    The following orbits fit Greg's UNID, and propagate back reasonably close to the initial orbit of 95034B / 23610.
    
                                                          1650 X 38509 km
    1 93851U 13851A   13351.41220380  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    00
    2 93851  63.4300 189.2755 6965693 281.1806  13.6299  2.01726000    09
    
                                                          1579 X 38014 km
    1 93851U 13851A   13351.41944390  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    04
    2 93851  63.2000 188.8481 6959885 282.9644  13.1644  2.05000000    08
    
    The mean motion of the first one probably is a the low end of the range. The perigee may have briefly dipped to about
    300 km, which is the basis for the second TLE. But the mean motion is merely a guess.
    
    I recommend that prospective searchers first check the semi-synchronous versions I posted earlier. Their longitude of
    ascending node is not far from common operation values, so it may well prove to be a payload. Failing that, then the
    above a worth a try.
    
    Given the jillion other possibilities, low expectations for recovery are the most realistic.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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