RE: Optical 17 Dec 2013

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Thu Dec 19 2013 - 16:15:36 UTC

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "RE: Optical 17 Dec 2013"

    Regarding Greg's second UNID of Dec 17 UTC, I have fit three Molniya orbits of semi-synchronous mean motion, spanning
    the typical range of inclination.
    
                                                          1420 X 38934 km
    1 93851U 13851A   13351.88054402  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    01
    2 93851  62.5000 187.9566 7063576 285.6920 353.4281  2.00616000    00
    
                                                          1651 X 38702 km
    1 93851U 13851A   13351.88054399  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    06
    2 93851  63.4300 189.2126 6976408 281.1609 353.7891  2.00616000    01
    
                                                          1829 X 38524 km
    1 93851U 13851A   13351.88054403  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    02
    2 93851  64.2000 190.0992 6909423 277.8594 354.0569  2.00616000    02
    
    As Mike is fond of reminding, there are a jillion other possibilities (not all of them Molniya).
    
    Intrinsic magnitude would be roughly 3 (1000 km, 90 deg phase angle). Since it was varying regularly, it could be a
    rocket body, in which case its mean motion is likely to be 2.2 or greater.
    
    It is probably worth a brief check to rule out a payload, allowing for mean-motion between ~2.004 and 2.01.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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