Phobos-Grunt Orientation and Flare Prediction

From: satrack@libero.it
Date: Fri Dec 16 2011 - 20:59:39 UTC

  • Next message: Paul Salanitri: "Phobos-Grunt Orientation and Flare Prediction"

    These days I have been investigating the orientation of Phobos-Grunt analyzing 
    different possibilities for all the reported flares, however, the only 
    reasonable 
    explanation that correlates the reported times is that Phobos-Grunt keeps the 
    longitudinal axis actively oriented towards the Sun while it rotates along 
    this axis. 
    
    I analyzed 12 flares (or marked brightness maxima). Excluding 2 of them, 
    which 
    give completely uncorrelated angles, the remaining 10 flares are generated by 
    2 surfaces.
    
    The first surface generated 5 observed flares: all of them lead to a tilt 
    (angle between 
    the satellite axis and the surface normal) of 55 +- 1 degrees.
    
    The second surface generated the other 5 flares: all of them lead to a tilt of 
    65 +- 2 degrees.
    
    Alexander Repnoj on December 7 observed both the surfaces during the same 
    pass, 
    reporting 2 of these 10 flares just 1 minute apart each other. 
    
    I extracted also the flare data from Kevin’s video and it perfectly leads to 
    the second 
    surface giving a tilt of 64.2 degrees.
    
    Despite observations cover a period of about 8 days, the angles do not show 
    any drift. 
    It is reasonable to think that Phobos-Grunt actively orient its axis direction 
    towards the Sun.
    
    These days new flares should be visible from these two surfaces so new 
    observations 
    could definitely show whether this model is correct or not. 
    
    I can provide predictions, so, if you are willing to help with morning 
    observations, just 
    send me your coordinates.
    
    More details can be found at my web page. I included all the analyzed flare 
    angles, 
    several 3D representations and a crossed eye stereographic picture of Phobos-
    Grunt 
    orientation during an observed flare.
    
    http://www.satflare.com/track.php?q=phobos
    
    Best Regards,
    Simone
    
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