RE: VAFB Atlas 2AS NOSS search elements

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Mon Dec 01 2003 - 06:55:08 EST

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Since my post on Saturday, NOTAMs have been released for Dec 03 and 04, which
appear to contradict the rumoured lift-off time of 10:03 UTC on Dec 02:

A0381/03 (11/082) - AIRSPACE RESERVATION ACTIVATED ON 30 RANS AIROP DO-0311
STATIONARY RESERVATION WITHIN AN AREA BNDD BY 3425N/12027W 3424N/12031W
3437N/12037W 3438N/12033W WITHIN AN AREA BNDD BY 3242N/12001W 3318N/12016W
3326N/11948W 3250N/11933W SFC UNL 02 DEC 09:48 UNTIL 02 DEC 10:53

A0382/03 (11/084) - AIRSPACE RESERVATION ACTIVATED ON 30 RANS AIROP DO-0311
STATIONARY RESERVATION WITHIN AN AREA BNDD BY 3425N/12027W 3424N/12031W
3437N/12037W 3438N/12033W WITHIN AN AREA BNDD BY 3242N/12001W 3318N/12016W
3326N/11948W 3250N/11933W SFC UNL 03 DEC 09:48 UNTIL 03 DEC 10:53

A0383/03 (12/003) - AIRSPACE RESERVATION ACTIVATED ON 30 RANS AIROP DO-0311
STATIONARY RESERVATION WITHIN AN AREA BNDD BY 3425N/12027W 3424N/12031W
3437N/12037W 3438N/12033W WITHIN AN AREA BNDD BY 3242N/12001W 3318N/12016W
3326N/11948W 3250N/11933W SFC UNL 04 DEC 09:48 UNTIL 04 DEC 10:53

As I mentioned on Saturday, the planar window for a NOSS launch advances (comes
earlier) by 13.98 min per day. That means that a lift-off scheduled for Dec 02
at 10:03 UTC, would move to 09:49 UTC on Dec 03, and 09:35 UTC on Dec 04. 

The Dec 02 and 03 times would fall within the NOTAMs' 09:48 - 10:53 launch
period, but Dec 04's would be too early by 13 min, which would appear to
invalidate the rumoured time for Dec 02.

I now believe that the start of the launch window on Dec 02 is no earlier than
about 10:17 UTC, and based upon some other rumours, lift-off may be planned for
about 10:31 UTC.

Since the launch time is expected to be officially announced some time today, I
will wait for that before I revise the search elements.

Ted Molczan


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Next message: Tony Beresford: "December 1 observation"
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