Decay watch: 2002 December 8

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Dec 08 2002 - 11:43:54 EST

  • Next message: Walter Nissen: "re: EGP"

    Two new decayers and a couple on the verge of decaying as I made this 
    latest update to my Decay Watch page. There are more predicted elsets on 
    that page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #17131 = 86- 19 AA = Spot 1 rocket deb AA
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec  8 05:58     Dec  8 04:11 +-8m        79.3 N   123.9 W
    SatEvo     Dec  8 15:50     Dec  8 02:44 +-1h        79.7 N   171.4 E
    
    Final elset:
    Spot 1 r AA      2.6  0.0  0.0  6.3 d  2.9       195 x 182 km
    1 17131U 86019AA  02341.97541273  .25099495  26973-5  49823-2 0  4410
    2 17131  97.8114  60.4177 0009712 290.4489  69.5774 16.31438534718748
    
    Note: I show this decaying over the Arctic near northern apex on the
    following predicted orbit:
    Spot 1 r AA      2.6  0.0  0.0  6.3 d  2.9       143 x 138 km
    1 17131U 86019AA  02342.09760296 3.79295083  50000+2  49275-2 0 94419
    2 17131  97.8064  60.5684 0003635 289.9456  70.0152 16.49638796718761
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22658 = 93- 32 B = GPS 2-20 Delta 2 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec  8 15:37     Dec  8 18:04 +-3h         0.5 S    34.0 W
    SatEvo     Dec  8 16:00     Dec  8 18:29 +-80m       19.9 N    76.6 E
    
    Latest elset:
    GPS 2-20 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   13       160 x 155 km
    1 22658U 93032B   02342.56211806  .07881791 -18176-4  36452-3 0  7068
    2 22658  21.8959 316.6259 0003769 189.6528 127.0394 16.43142674526552
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    GPS 2-20 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   13       143 x 140 km
    1 22658U 93032B   02342.69059121  .30820369  10700+1  43385-3 0 97064
    2 22658  21.8952 315.5299 0002737 191.6046 168.3891 16.49158247526570
    GPS 2-20 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   13       127 x 125 km
    1 22658U 93032B   02342.75098304  .94600835  18269+2  47125-3 0 97066
    2 22658  21.8945 315.0107 0001676 192.5292 167.4666 16.55127756526588
    
    Note: I show this decaying southbound over India on the last of my
    predicted revs.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25694 = 99- 21 B = Uosat cover
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec  8 08:23     Dec 12 01:26 +-2d        11.8 S   156.2 E
    SatEvo     Dec  8 16:20     Dec 11 22:02 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Uosat cover      1.0  0.0  0.0  8.5 d  3.4       293 x 270 km
    1 25694U 99021B   02342.54850242  .02219486  34031-2  51175-2 0  2290
    2 25694  64.5163  85.0264 0017510 322.7999  37.1912 15.97469524198567
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 48 deg S at ~22:00
    local time. Eclipse exit occurs near northern apex at 65 deg N
    before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27517 = 02- 42 C = DRTS H-2A r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec  8 00:04     Dec 11 19:40 +-2d        22.8 S    75.8 E
    SatEvo     Dec  8 16:35     Dec 11 19:43 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    DRTS r DPAdpt    1.5  3.0  0.0  6.0 d    5       279 x 268 km
    1 27517U 02042C   02342.49676602  .02280059  37521-2  43220-2 0  1385
    2 27517  30.4005 248.8480 0008762 249.5687 110.4386 16.00417381 13901
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs just after northern apex at 29 deg N in
    the evening sky, with eclipse exit soon after southern apex near
    29 deg S before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27541 = 02- 48 B = Integral Proton rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec  8 07:52     Dec  8 19:35 +-8h        15.2 N     9.8 W
    SatEvo     Dec  8 16:10     Dec  8 19:45 +-3h        27.5 S    23.4 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Integral r1      6.0  2.5  0.0  4.0 d   20       201 x 133 km
    1 27541U 02048B   02342.36202546  .09114269  12522-4  19445-3 0  1369
    2 27541  51.5407 195.4728 0051872 283.0479  79.3609 16.39509517  8238
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Integral r1      6.0  2.5  0.0  4.0 d   20       168 x 124 km
    1 27541U 02048B   02342.66565769  .20990391  33168+0  20559-3 0 91363
    2 27541  51.5385 193.7455 0033422 284.3452  75.2838 16.47589498  8286
    Integral r1      6.0  2.5  0.0  4.0 d   20       156 x 120 km
    1 27541U 02048B   02342.72626783  .29876232  76170+0  21546-3 0 91367
    2 27541  51.5377 193.3977 0027295 284.6064  75.0909 16.50595190  8293
    Integral r1      6.0  2.5  0.0  4.0 d   20       136 x 113 km
    1 27541U 02048B   02342.78674468  .66388242  53936+1  28048-3 0 91366
    2 27541  51.5364 193.0488 0017625 284.8684  74.9363 16.55690600  8300
    
    Note: We could do with fresh elsets for this object. I estimate that
    it will decay southbound on the last of the predicted revs, possibly
    over Botswana and South Africa.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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