Astra 1K's orbit becoming more eccentric?

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Sat Dec 07 2002 - 03:22:39 EST

  • Next message: Paul J Henney: "RE: Astra 1K's orbit becoming more eccentric?"

    Since its reboost on day 331, Astra 1K has manoeuvred to maintain a
    mean motion near 15.97 rev/d. For the first three days after the
    reboost, it maintained a nearly circular orbit; thereafter, its
    orbit has become increasingly eccentric.
    
    The appended sample of elements, shows that perigee height has 
    decreased by about 53 km; apogee height has increased by about 44 km.
    
    Assuming this evolution is real, and not some error in the orbit
    determination, then it appears that the orbit is being set up for an
    eventual de-orbit, as was reported several days ago.
    
    I am a bit suspicious that the orbit determination is being confounded
    by the frequent manoeuvres, but this is only intuition.
    
    Ted Molczan
                                                                
                                                                285 X 301
    1 27557U 02053A   02331.73479222  .00865813  34397-3  20455-2 0   147
    2 27557  51.5943  50.2274 0011406 214.1999 145.9393 15.96102301   295
    
                                                                279 X 303
    1 27557U 02053A   02333.48734341  .00154529  20699-4  35369-3 0   245
    2 27557  51.5918  40.8794 0018014 281.8279  77.9760 15.96739048   570
    
                                                                285 X 301
    1 27557U 02053A   02334.17606605 -.00232387  29486-4 -53696-3 0   251
    2 27557  51.5847  37.2297 0012378 296.1511  63.8223 15.96044583   687
    
                                                                286 X 304
    1 27557U 02053A   02334.99030928 -.00335816  48695-4 -81179-3 0   295
    2 27557  51.6008  32.9075 0013174 281.2569  78.6958 15.95290025   813
    
                                                                267 X 315
    1 27557U 02053A   02335.18627878  .00711487  22995-3  15303-2 0   304
    2 27557  51.5837  31.8498 0035847 292.1235 116.0708 15.96662275   845
    
                                                                257 X 317
    1 27557U 02053A   02337.55507306  .00327449  55140-4  62078-3 0   391
    2 27557  51.6080  19.2800 0045181 304.6724  54.9548 15.98177862  1227
                                                                
                                                                254 X 324
    1 27557U 02053A   02338.18051282  .00050270  12321-4  10000-3 0   418
    2 27557  51.5985  15.9549 0052507 307.1832  51.9977 15.97650087  1329
                                                                
                                                                244 X 338
    1 27557U 02053A   02339.36944511  .00478061  10542-3  83409-3 0   467
    2 27557  51.6200   9.6594 0070994 312.5080  46.9951 15.96759770  1510
                                                                
                                                                235 X 347
    1 27557U 02053A   02340.74622793  .00060841  12748-4  10000-3 0   524
    2 27557  51.6243   2.3519 0083664 320.0052  39.2923 15.96758492  1733
    
    Perigee and apogee height are relative Earth's mean diameter of 6371 km,
    and based on the elset eccentricity, which is stated for argument of
    perigee of zero.
    
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Dec 07 2002 - 03:34:56 EST