Additions to, and update from, my Decay Watch page:
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #17131 = 86- 19 AA = Spot 1 rocket deb AA
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Dec 4 01:56 Dec 8 02:38 +-2d 70.7 N 77.8 W
SatEvo Dec 4 19:20 Dec 8 15:43 +-1.2d
Latest elset:
Spot 1 r AA 2.6 0.0 0.0 6.3 d 2.9 301 x 291 km
1 17131U 86019AA 02338.66948415 .01705628 15270-2 52314-2 0 4185
2 17131 97.8889 56.5230 0007675 305.3912 54.6655 15.92172456718215
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 51 deg N near local
midnight. Eclipse exit occurs near northern apex over the Arctic.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #22658 = 93- 32 B = GPS 2-20 Delta 2 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Dec 4 10:27 Dec 7 20:06 +-2d 7.6 N 34.8 W
SatEvo Dec 4 19:30 Dec 8 08:26 +-1.1d
Latest elset:
GPS 2-20 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 v 13 240 x 231 km
1 22658U 93032B 02338.63877723 .01931614 32970-2 15018-2 0 6744
2 22658 21.9025 349.0748 0007050 348.2744 11.7212 16.14279794525920
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 4 deg N in the
evening and leaves eclipse southbound near 7 deg N before dawn.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27514 = 02- 41 B = Intelsat 906 Ariane 44L rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Dec 4 08:31 Dec 4 08:11 +-7m 6.0 N 72.0 E
SatEvo Dec 3 22:15 Dec 4 19:26 +-9h 6.8 N 139.6 W
Final elsets:
Intelsat 906 Ariane 44L r 1782 x 106 km
1 27514U 02041B 02337.64173699 .72547128 -80231-4 20896-2 0 2070
2 27514 6.8416 149.0622 1144585 46.9064 322.1397 13.85625267 4306
Intelsat 906 Ariane 44L r 1678 x 177 km
1 27514U 02041B 02338.00342533 .26751840 -20463-4 39145-1 0 2047
2 27514 6.7397 148.7396 1027138 42.7290 325.4581 13.90457016 4353
Note: I find it difficult to reconcile the final elset with the
earlier ones and with SCC's estimated decay only 8 hours later.
Unless and until further elsets appear, I stick by my previous
estimate for a much later decay near northern apex on the following
SatEvo-predicted orbit:
Intelsat 906 Ariane 44L r 359 x 94 km
1 27514U 02041B 02338.79575739 4.35835563 32908+2 26803-2 0 91979
2 27514 6.8087 140.9226 0200653 62.3860 299.6371 16.17508055 4475
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Dec 04 2002 - 14:58:30 EST