Decay watch: 2002 December 4

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Dec 04 2002 - 14:46:57 EST

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Re: STS113"

    Additions to, and update from, my Decay Watch page:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #17131 = 86- 19 AA = Spot 1 rocket deb AA
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec  4 01:56     Dec  8 02:38 +-2d        70.7 N    77.8 W
    SatEvo     Dec  4 19:20     Dec  8 15:43 +-1.2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Spot 1 r AA      2.6  0.0  0.0  6.3 d  2.9       301 x 291 km
    1 17131U 86019AA  02338.66948415  .01705628  15270-2  52314-2 0  4185
    2 17131  97.8889  56.5230 0007675 305.3912  54.6655 15.92172456718215
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 51 deg N near local
    midnight. Eclipse exit occurs near northern apex over the Arctic.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22658 = 93- 32 B = GPS 2-20 Delta 2 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec  4 10:27     Dec  7 20:06 +-2d         7.6 N    34.8 W
    SatEvo     Dec  4 19:30     Dec  8 08:26 +-1.1d
    
    Latest elset:
    GPS 2-20 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   13       240 x 231 km
    1 22658U 93032B   02338.63877723  .01931614  32970-2  15018-2 0  6744
    2 22658  21.9025 349.0748 0007050 348.2744  11.7212 16.14279794525920
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 4 deg N in the
    evening and leaves eclipse southbound near 7 deg N before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27514 = 02- 41 B = Intelsat 906 Ariane 44L rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec  4 08:31     Dec  4 08:11 +-7m         6.0 N    72.0 E
    SatEvo     Dec  3 22:15     Dec  4 19:26 +-9h         6.8 N   139.6 W
    
    Final elsets:
    Intelsat 906 Ariane 44L r                        1782 x 106 km
    1 27514U 02041B   02337.64173699  .72547128 -80231-4  20896-2 0  2070
    2 27514   6.8416 149.0622 1144585  46.9064 322.1397 13.85625267  4306
    Intelsat 906 Ariane 44L r                        1678 x 177 km
    1 27514U 02041B   02338.00342533  .26751840 -20463-4  39145-1 0  2047
    2 27514   6.7397 148.7396 1027138  42.7290 325.4581 13.90457016  4353
    
    Note: I find it difficult to reconcile the final elset with the
    earlier ones and with SCC's estimated decay only 8 hours later.
    Unless and until further elsets appear, I stick by my previous
    estimate for a much later decay near northern apex on the following
    SatEvo-predicted orbit:
    Intelsat 906 Ariane 44L r                        359 x 94 km
    1 27514U 02041B   02338.79575739 4.35835563  32908+2  26803-2 0 91979
    2 27514   6.8087 140.9226 0200653  62.3860 299.6371 16.17508055  4475
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Dec 04 2002 - 14:58:30 EST