Decay watch: 2001 December 13

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Dec 13 2001 - 16:38:51 EST

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    I have just updated my Decay Watch page again with a prediction for 
    tomorrow's Molniya 3-35 decay. The following is a summary...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #20052 = 89- 43 A = Molniya 3-35
    Notice prepared: 2001 Dec 13 21:25 UTC
    
    Latest decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
    
    SpaceCom   Dec 12 08:16     Dec 14 08:38 +-1d         7.4 S   108.9 E
    SatEvo     Dec 13 21:25     Dec 14 14:20 +-6h        49.9 S   158.5 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-35                                     2196 x 86 km
    1 20052U 89043A   01347.77438487  .99999999  00000-0  17176-2 0  4582
    2 20052  61.9273 138.7343 1403047 264.0616  80.0089 13.31544340 93906
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Molniya 3-35                                     1737 x 78 km
    1 20052U 89043A   01348.06874940 1.28411522  45053+0  96001-3 0 94510
    2 20052  61.8564 137.8611 1138690 263.9777  82.9568 13.96166998 93959
    Molniya 3-35                                     1324 x 76 km
    1 20052U 89043A   01348.27974414 1.69670273  97199+0  98347-3 0 94518
    2 20052  61.8305 137.1934 0881457 264.0579  85.8395 14.57950211 93980
    Molniya 3-35                                     793 x 73 km
    1 20052U 89043A   01348.48082829 2.91049442  44941+1  10645-2 0 94517
    2 20052  61.7983 136.4863 0528152 264.1444  89.8134 15.44475769 94013
    Molniya 3-35                                     534 x 71 km
    1 20052U 89043A   01348.54506752 4.49800432  14185+2  11606-2 0 94515
    2 20052  61.7856 136.2372 0345858 264.1753  91.8724 15.89956752 94022
    
    Note: The prediction remains very uncertain. I estimate that this will
    decay following perigee on this final SatEvo-predicted rev, to the south
    of the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand. The track just
    after this takes it to the W of the South Island of New Zealand, then
    a little W of Auckland on the North Island.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Dec 13 2001 - 16:39:56 EST