Decay watch: 2001 December 10

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Dec 10 2001 - 16:27:55 EST

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    My Decay Watch page has been updated with the final notice for the Titan 
    4 rocket and the first one for Molniya 3-35. Summaries follow:
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #20052 = 89- 43 A = Molniya 3-35
    
    Notice prepared: 2001 Dec 10 21:20 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Dec  9 20:27     Dec 13 20:34 +-2d        58.3 S    13.1 W
    SatEvo     Dec 10 21:20     Dec 14 09:10 +-1.5d
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-35                                     5938 x 76 km
    1 20052U 89043A   01344.78709491  .99999999  28291-5  18069-2 0  4361
    2 20052  61.8480 144.6876 3122640 262.8823 330.7141  9.54887493 93573
    
    SatEvo prediction: (see my Decay Watch page for an (uncertain) 
    prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26935 = 01- 44 B = USA 161 Titan 4 r
    
    Notice prepared: 2001 Dec 10 20:35 UTC
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Dec 10 01:04     Dec 10 00:30 +-7m        16.0 N    12.0 E
    SatEvo     Dec 10 20:35     Dec 10 00:27 +-20m        0.0      15.1 E
    
    Final elset:
    USA 161 Titan 4 r                                148 x 97 km
    1 26935U 01044B   01343.95840888  .42789890  27189-5  14252-3 0   374
    2 26935  97.8162 100.5775 0039271 252.1834 107.5182 16.56579808 10046
    
    Note: Although this was a hard decayer to predict, my final prediction,
    issued on my Decay Watch page with some 13 hours to go, turned out much 
    better than I expected. Indeed, it was running only 19 sec late against 
    my forecast at the epoch of the final elset. I estimate the decay near 
    the end of that orbit at a northbound equator crossing above the Congo 
    river in central Africa. If it had stayed in orbit long enough after 
    this, there might have been a northwards pass across eastern France to 
    the North Sea at ~00:39, though I have heard no reports of a sighting.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Dec 10 2001 - 16:39:51 EST