My last Decay Watch update of the Millennium... _____________________________________________________________________ Object: #4584 = 70- 85 B = Meteor 1-6 rocket Decay predictions: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SpaceCom Dec 30 11:14 Jan 1 11:16 +-1d 71.6 S 66.1 W SatEvo Dec 31 10:40 Jan 1 13:07 +-7h 0.0 57.3 E Latest elset: Meteor 1-6 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 11 179 x 174 km 1 04584U 70085B 00366.32883927 .03441118 -94724-6 44021-3 0 4767 2 04584 81.1534 357.0100 0003770 124.7577 235.3989 16.35937199654503 SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page - prediction ends... Meteor 1-6 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 11 140 x 138 km 1 04584U 70085B 01001.36523949 .16865268 25708+0 20691-3 0 94767 2 04584 81.1486 355.5560 0001975 120.5908 239.4287 16.50095385654672 Meteor 1-6 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 11 134 x 132 km 1 04584U 70085B 01001.42584143 .23815729 53991+0 19958-3 0 94761 2 04584 81.1478 355.4698 0001684 120.3437 239.6729 16.52506804654685 Meteor 1-6 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 11 124 x 122 km 1 04584U 70085B 01001.48633443 .38258321 76974+0 19005-3 0 94769 2 04584 81.1467 355.3833 0001260 120.0961 239.9164 16.56198816654693 Note: The latest elset shows this running 0.7 sec late against the prediction I posted yesterday. My current estimate is for this to decay near the northbound equator crossing at the end of the final predicted rev, above. This places it over the western Indian Ocean. I note that that rev carries it southbound in eclipse over the western USA from near Spokane, Washington, at 12:12 UTC to the California-Mexico border at 12:16. There are earlier southbound passes over the USA within the window of uncertainty for the decay. _____________________________________________________________________ Object: #25529 = 98- 66 C = Iridium 85 Final decay analyses: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SpaceCom Dec 30 20:53 Dec 30 20:45 +-1h 60.3 S 167.8 W SatEvo Dec 31 09:45 Dec 30 20:40 +-40m 58.6 S 167.5 W Final elset: Iridium 85 tum 4.0 1.8 0.0 6.0 d 9.3 150 x 140 km 1 25529U 98066C 00365.74996778 .23202093 -11755-5 38608-3 0 8671 2 25529 85.9684 248.8024 0007841 176.2789 183.8690 16.47824324120103 Note: The final elset has this 20 sec late against my final pre-decay prediction. I was caught out by how much this decay slipped over the latter orbits - more than I can explain by any expected decrease in drag coefficient as it dropped into the atmospheric transition flow region. In the end, my best fit gives a predicted final elset of: Iridium 85 tum 4.0 1.8 0.0 6.0 d 9.3 132 x 124 km 1 25529U 98066C 00365.81054454 .59309281 20663+1 37547-3 0 98673 2 25529 85.9666 248.7630 0005746 176.0056 183.9989 16.54291319120115 Like SpaceCom, I estimate that this decayed while northbound over the S Pacific. _____________________________________________________________________ Alan -- Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ * ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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