Decay watch: 2000 Dec 28 #2

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Dec 28 2000 - 13:49:12 PST

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    I have updated the predictions for two of the objects on my Decay Watch
    page...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #4392 = 70- 34 B = Mao 1 Long March 1 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 28 16:32     Dec 29 04:47 +-8h        45.0 N   166.0 E
    SatEvo     Dec 28 21:25     Dec 29 04:00 +-3h        34.8 S     3.7 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Mao 1 r          4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d  5.2       205 x 188 km
    1 04392U 70034B   00363.56222037  .09293660  53088-5  23071-2 0  4861
    2 04392  68.2879 179.6525 0013649 112.1454 248.1059 16.28563682521347
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Mao 1 r          4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d  5.2       189 x 174 km
    1 04392U 70034B   00363.80747032  .13284826  90888-1  19425-2 0 94866
    2 04392  68.2862 178.8368 0011542 111.7974 248.3254 16.34067505521380
    Mao 1 r          4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d  5.2       184 x 170 km
    1 04392U 70034B   00363.86864912  .15249510  12482+0  18598-2 0 94864
    2 04392  68.2856 178.6322 0010871 111.7101 248.4056 16.35806624521393
    Mao 1 r          4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d  5.2       178 x 165 km
    1 04392U 70034B   00363.92975776  .18062332  18418+0  17650-2 0 94863
    2 04392  68.2850 178.4273 0010107 111.6227 248.4849 16.37830741521401
    Mao 1 r          4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d  5.2       171 x 159 km
    1 04392U 70034B   00363.99078330  .22580927  31179+0  16588-2 0 94868
    2 04392  68.2842 178.2220 0009197 111.5352 248.5628 16.40286117521410
    Mao 1 r          4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d  5.2       162 x 151 km
    1 04392U 70034B   00364.05170461  .31178553  64502+0  11685-2 0 94861
    2 04392  68.2833 178.0163 0008026 111.4475 248.6381 16.43496321521420
    Mao 1 r          4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d  5.2       148 x 139 km
    1 04392U 70034B   00364.11247926  .55995117  32345+1  82864-3 0 94867
    2 04392  68.2813 177.8099 0006241 111.3595 248.7071 16.48461024521437
    
    Note: This decay has continued to slip. My current estimate is for the
    re-entry to occur northbound over the Atlantic to the west of Cape Town,
    South Africa, near the end of the final SatEvo-predicted orbit above.
    SpaceCom's latest puts it half a rev later, southbound over the N
    Pacific. 
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25529 = 98- 66 C = Iridium 85
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 28 15:30     Dec 30 14:50 +-1d        68.8 S    82.1 W
    SatEvo     Dec 28 21:15     Dec 30 12:35 +-11h
    
    Latest elset:
    Iridium 85 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d  9.3       232 x 222 km
    1 25529U 98066C   00363.47498531  .03050690 -14146-5  19810-2 0  8484
    2 25529  85.9866 250.2129 0007617 151.6544 207.9060 16.17320327119732
    
    SatEvo prediction: See my Decay watch page
    
    Note: The latest elset has this 1.3 sec early against the prediction 
    I posted yesterday.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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