Decay watch: 2000 dec 11

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Dec 11 2000 - 12:35:36 PST

  • Next message: Harro.Zimmer: "Decay Forecast EarlyBird RB"

    There are more detailed predictions for the following decayers on my
    Decay Watch page.
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24743 = 97-  9 B = Intelsat 801 Ariane 44P rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 11 05:44     Dec 12 06:12 +-15h        1.8 N   103.0 E
    SatEvo     Dec 11 19:20     Dec 12 10:26 +-6h         2.1 S     0.1 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Intelsat 801 Ariane 44P r                        610 x 125 km
    1 24743U 97009B   00346.62664754  .24198399 -30932-4  94485-3 0  7806
    2 24743   6.4064 264.1234 0359737 323.8161  34.0433 15.67085907 60306
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    ..(ends)
    Intelsat 801 Ariane 44P r                        300 x 113 km
    1 24743U 97009B   00347.31618132  .84237601  14145+1  10213-2 0 97806
    2 24743   6.4040 258.2924 0142001 335.3687  23.9596 16.24891048 60419
    Intelsat 801 Ariane 44P r                        234 x 110 km
    1 24743U 97009B   00347.37735699 1.38250377  70832+1  11349-2 0 97801
    2 24743   6.4033 257.7453 0094883 336.4527  23.1158 16.37766479 60421
    
    Note: The latest elset shows it running 19 sec early against yesterday's
    prediction. I show this decaying near the northbound equator crossing at
    the end of the final SatEvo-predicted orbit above. This places it over
    the Gulf of Guinea.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25124 = 97- 85 B = Early Bird Start-1 r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 11 17:20     Dec 12 17:39 +-15h       23.0 N    83.0 E
    SatEvo     Dec 11 19:30     Dec 12 18:57 +-7h        0.0      65.6 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Early Bird r     3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d  2.7       185 x 175 km
    1 25124U 97085B   00346.63209949  .03928960  23755-5  56919-3 0  8242
    2 25124  97.1673  70.2793 0007313 263.6024  96.4752 16.34693356166949
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    ..(ends)
    Early Bird r     3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d  2.7       143 x 138 km
    1 25124U 97085B   00347.60813297  .18730843  31043+0  24649-3 0 98241
    2 25124  97.1622  71.3881 0003835 259.5034 100.4533 16.49552064167101
    Early Bird r     3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d  2.7       135 x 131 km
    1 25124U 97085B   00347.66875318  .27894244  78242+0  23924-3 0 98242
    2 25124  97.1613  71.4580 0003219 259.2450 100.7187 16.52289861167118
    Early Bird r     3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d  2.7       122 x 119 km
    1 25124U 97085B   00347.72924328  .60310298  31408+1  26472-3 0 98249
    2 25124  97.1600  71.5280 0002176 258.9859 100.9896 16.57156372167127
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 32 sec late against the 
    prediction I posted two days ago. My latest analysis shows this 
    decaying northbound near a northbound equator crossing over the
    Indian Ocean at the end of the final predicted orbit above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25422 = 98- 46 K = Orbcomm 17 Pegasus r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 11 10:11     Dec 14 09:18 +-2d        32.9 N    17.3 W
    SatEvo     Dec 11 19:50     Dec 14 10:21 +-16h
    
    Latest elset:
    Orbcm Pegasus r2                                 233 x 214 km
    1 25422U 98046K   00346.55794457  .02215813  86096-5  12076-2 0  7601
    2 25422  42.5509 194.5111 0014456  13.0092 347.1013 16.18436500130994
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 14 sec late against
    yesterday's prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Dec 11 2000 - 12:38:14 PST