SatEvo decay list #90

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 26 Dec 1999 17:29:51 +0000

SatEvo decay list #90  (issued 1999 December 26)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
decay by 2000 February 5, although some larger and/or more interesting
decayers are included beyond that date.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, and all newly
launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file,
satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites.
This is available in zipped form from the same address.

I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.

   #    Designation    Name              --- Decay (1999/2000) ---
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 24034   94- 29 CF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 12
 25058   65- 98 L   Alouette 2 deb                 December 15.2
 19377   88- 69 A   Molniya 1-73                   December 16.22
 23008   92- 93 JE  C 2227 Zenit deb               December 16.9
 23935   78- 96 F   Tiros N deb                    December 17.9
 24109   94- 29 FG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 17.9
 24372   94- 29 PZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 18
  1832   65- 82 DX  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb                December 18.62
 25974   97- 79 H   Cosmos 2347 deb                December 18.8 Note 1
  7960   72- 58 CQ  Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb            December 18.9
 25790   99- 34 B   QuikScat Titan 2 r             December 20.26
  4869   70- 25 EZ  Thorad Agena D deb             December 21.5
  4981   70- 25 HB  Thorad Agena D deb             December 23.3 Note 1
 16308   79- 17 BX  Solwind deb                    December 23.8
 24110   94- 29 FH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 23.8 Note 1
 24225   94- 29 KY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 25.9
 14447   71- 15 CR  Cosmos 397 deb        December 26
 26041   99- 72 B   C 2361 Tsyklon-2 r    December 26
 15707   83- 44 AA  Cosmos 1461 deb       December 27
 24522   94- 29 UW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 29
 25423   98- 46 L   Orbcomm Pegasus deb   December 30
 21960   85-118 M   C 1710 SL-12 deb      December 30
  7847   72- 58 T   Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb    January  1
 24620   94- 29 ZY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  2
 22564   93- 15 B   UFO 1 r1               January  5
 13964   83- 25 A   Molniya 1-57           January  8?
 25663   94- 29 AEG STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  9
 25796   80- 89 CK  Cosmos 1220 deb        January 11
 25220   87- 68 AX  Meteor 2-16 deb        January 13
  1962   65- 82 GX  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb        January 14
 16885   86- 57 A   Molniya 1-67           January 14?
 24111   94- 29 FJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 15
 24240   94- 29 LP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 15
  7842   72- 58 N   Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb    January 16
 24388   94- 29 QR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 16
 24368   94- 29 PV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 17
 22346   92- 93 AK  C 2227 Zenit deb       January 18
  7969   75- 56 B   Cosmos 744 r           January 21
 20759   90- 43 L   Macsat Scout G-1 deb   January 21
 24230   94- 29 LD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 21
 24148   94- 29 GX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 25
 22890   83- 75 G   Cosmos 1484 deb        January 27
  3343   68- 66 E   Explr 39 Scout deb     January 28
 22822   93- 11 H   Astro D M-3S2 deb      January 28
 24614   94- 29 ZS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 28
  9854   77- 15 B   Cosmos 895 r          February  1
 24054   94- 29 DB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  1
 17124   86- 19 U   Spot 1 Ariane deb     February  2
 22702   93- 42 C   GPS 2-21 Delta r2     February  5
 25176   98- 11 B   COMETS H2 r           February  5
 25911   99- 49 E   Glblstar 33 Soyuz r   February  7
 25769   99- 30 B   Starshine             February 14
 25947   99- 58 E   Glblstar 31 Soyuz r      March  5
 22876   93- 67 B   Cosmos 2265 r            March  7
 15977   85- 74 A   Molniya 1-64             March?
 20919   90- 93 B   Inmarsat2-F1 Delta2 r    March 15
 11331   79- 32 A   Cosmos 1093              March 24
 25965   99- 62 E   Glblstar 29 Soyuz r      March 24
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                      March 29  Note 2


Notes

1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.

2. The estimate for Mir's decay is on the (probably unrealistic) basis 
that there are no further manoeuvres.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html