SatEvo decay list #89
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 11 Dec 1999 19:43:39 +0000
SatEvo decay list #89 (issued 1999 December 11)
This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
decay by 2000 January 21, although some larger and/or more interesting
decayers are included beyond that date.
This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, and all newly
launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file,
satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites.
This is available in zipped form from the same address.
I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger
decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
# Designation Name --- Decay (1999/2000) ---
Predicted Actual?
22847 92- 38 C Sampex Scout G-1 deb November 24.6
14610 83-113 E DMSP F7 deb November 27.6
25957 99- 61 B Shenzhou CZ-1F r November 27.85 Note 3
25976 97- 79 K Cosmos 2347 deb November 28
25969 97- 79 C Cosmos 2347 deb November 29
7853 72- 58 Z Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb November 30.3
25014 97- 63 B STEP M4 Pegasus r November 30.39
25972 97- 79 F Cosmos 2347 deb November 30
25914 99- 50 B EchoStar 5 Centaur r November 30.93
19579 78-110 AK C 1045 SL-14 deb December 1 Note 2
1844 65-106 B Cosmos 100 r December 1.15
25971 97- 79 E Cosmos 2347 deb December 1
25960 99- 61 E Shenzhou Orbital Module December 1.97
22924 93- 74 C USA 97 Centaur r2 December 5.28
22534 93- 11 D Astro D M-3S2 deb December 7
24084 94- 29 EF STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 8 Note 1
22365 92- 93 BE C 2227 Zenit deb December 9.1 Note 1
25975 97- 79 J Cosmos 2347 deb December 9.5 Note 1
25970 97- 79 D Cosmos 2347 deb December 11.0
25923 99- 52 B Tlstr 7 Ariane r December 11.10
22334 92- 93 X C 2227 Zenit deb December 11.3
25088 97- 79 A Cosmos 2347 December 11.53
24034 94- 29 CF STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 12
19377 88- 69 A Molniya 1-73 December 16
23008 92- 93 JE C 2227 Zenit deb December 16
25058 65- 98 L Alouette 2 deb December 16
1832 65- 82 DX OV2-1/LCS 2 deb December 17
23935 78- 96 F Tiros N deb December 17
24109 94- 29 FG STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 18
7960 72- 58 CQ Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb December 19
24372 94- 29 PZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 19
25974 97- 79 H Cosmos 2347 deb December 19
4869 70- 25 EZ Thorad Agena D deb December 20
25423 98- 46 L Orbcomm Pegasus deb December 21
25790 99- 34 B QuikScat Titan 2 r December 21
4981 70- 25 HB Thorad Agena D deb December 22
21960 85-118 M C 1710 SL-12 deb December 23
16308 79- 17 BX Solwind deb December 25
24110 94- 29 FH STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 25
15707 83- 44 AA Cosmos 1461 deb December 26
24620 94- 29 ZY STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 26
24225 94- 29 KY STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 27
14447 71- 15 CR Cosmos 397 deb December 30
25220 87- 68 AX Meteor 2-16 deb December 30
24522 94- 29 UW STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 1
7847 72- 58 T Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb January 2
22564 93- 15 B UFO 1 r1 January 4
24111 94- 29 FJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 4
25796 80- 89 CK Cosmos 1220 deb January 4
7842 72- 58 N Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb January 6
1962 65- 82 GX OV2-1/LCS 2 deb January 7
24240 94- 29 LP STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 7
13964 83- 25 A Molniya 1-57 January 8?
22346 92- 93 AK C 2227 Zenit deb January 10
24368 94- 29 PV STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 10
24230 94- 29 LD STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 11
24148 94- 29 GX STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 12
24388 94- 29 QR STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 12
20759 90- 43 L Macsat Scout G-1 deb January 13
16885 86- 57 A Molniya 1-67 January 14?
3343 68- 66 E Explr 39 Scout deb January 15
7969 75- 56 B Cosmos 744 r January 15
24614 94- 29 ZS STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 15
22890 83- 75 G Cosmos 1484 deb January 18
22822 93- 11 H Astro D M-3S2 deb January 21
9854 77- 15 B Cosmos 895 r January 26
22702 93- 42 C GPS 2-21 Delta r2 January 27
25176 98- 11 B COMETS H2 r February 1
25769 99- 30 B Starshine February 7
25911 99- 49 E Glblstar 33 Soyuz r February 7
25947 99- 58 E Glblstar 31 Soyuz r February 20
22876 93- 67 B Cosmos 2265 r February 21
20919 90- 93 B Inmarsat2-F1 Delta2 r March 3
11331 79- 32 A Cosmos 1093 March 15
15977 85- 74 A Molniya 1-64 March
16609 86- 17 A Mir April Note 4
25965 99- 62 E Glblstar 29 Soyuz r April
Notes
1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
2. No recent elsets.
3. The decay time for the Shenzhou Long March rocket (#25957 = 99- 61 B)
is based on my SatEvo analysis of the final elsets. There are reports
that the decay was widely observed from SE Spain at November 27 21:30
UTC (November 27.90). SpaceCom's final decay notice claims that this
decayed at 17:44 UTC (November 27.74).
4. Mir was boosted on December 8 and 9, raising its orbit from 323 x 319
km to 333 x 323 km. The estimate above is on the (probably unrealistic)
basis that there are no further manoeuvres.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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