Decay watch update: Hogmanay

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 31 Dec 1998 16:05:11 +0000

Other than the SpaceCom decay notices for the decayers from the Glonass
launch, which I reported in another posting, the following notices are 
current or have been released since my last update.

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC
     
#24670 = Cosmos 2335              Dec 31 00:23     Jan  1 00:11 +-1d
#24670 = Cosmos 2335              Dec 31 12:58     Jan  1 01:16 +-8h

#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r     Dec 29 07:47     Jan  4 22:25 +-4d

#25532 = Iridium 2 Delta r        Dec 30 18:20     Jan  6 17:52 +-4d

#25533 = Sputnik 41               Dec 30 20:36     Jan  9 21:00 +-6d

               -------------------------------

Cosmos 2335 was running 25 seconds late against yesterday's prediction 
at 98365.58. I now predict decay for December 31.99 (23:50 UTC +-2h), 
which is one orbit earlier than does SpaceCom, and 70 minutes later than
Harro in the MPM prediction in his latest posting. My prediction would 
place it near 60 deg S, 120 deg E, south of Australia and moving towards 
Syndey.

Predicted elsets:
Cosmos 2335      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            188 x 147 km
1 24670U 96069A   98365.70189911  .13947578  13840+0  58454-3 0 92075
2 24670  65.0116 274.8058 0031482 262.5965  97.0457 16.39410224116537
Cosmos 2335      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            172 x 141 km
1 24670U 96069A   98365.82377487  .21428305  33515+0  51075-3 0 92079
2 24670  65.0103 274.3361 0023867 262.5366  97.1922 16.43582908116552
Cosmos 2335      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            161 x 136 km
1 24670U 96069A   98365.88457839  .30502772  75042+0  47918-3 0 92078
2 24670  65.0093 274.1006 0018956 262.5066  97.2780 16.46664899116561
Cosmos 2335      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            143 x 127 km
1 24670U 96069A   98365.94524289  .59994241  34640+1  48318-3 0 92071
2 24670  65.0079 273.8643 0012219 262.4765  97.3847 16.51690655116570

               -------------------------------

Some other current SatEvo predictions:

   #    Designation    Name               Predicted decay

 25421   98- 46 J   Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r   January  4.4 +-0.8d
 25532   98- 66 F   Iridium 2 Delta r      January  6.0 +-1.1d
  4583   70- 85 A   Meteor 1-6             January  6.3 +-1.3d
 21148   91- 17 B   Lacrosse 2 r           January  6.9 +-1.4d
 25533   98- 62 C   Sputnik 41             January  8.7 +-1.6d
 25579   98- 74 C   Iridium 11A CZ-2C r    January 17   +-4d

## A Happy New Year to all SeeSaters ##

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/