Decay watch update: December 29
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 29 Dec 1998 17:53:03 +0000
Catching up after a couple of days away...
With the exception of that for #25532, the following SpaceCom decay
notices were published since my last update on the 26th:
Object Notice issued Predicted decay
UTC UTC
#25120 = Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r Dec 27 14:34 Dec 28 14:58 +-18h
#25120 = Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r Dec 28 03:19 Dec 28 15:37 +-8h
#25120 = Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r Dec 28 09:18 Dec 28 14:50 +-4h
#25120 = Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r Dec 28 12:30 Dec 28 14:44 +-2h
#25120 = Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r Dec 28 18:24 Dec 28 14:44 +-2h
#23539 = Brazilsat B2 Spelda Dec 27 04:11 Dec 29 04:35 +-1d
#23539 = Brazilsat B2 Spelda Dec 27 21:45 Dec 28 22:12 +-18h
#23539 = Brazilsat B2 Spelda Dec 28 16:43 Dec 29 04:21 +-7h
#23539 = Brazilsat B2 Spelda Dec 28 20:59 Dec 29 03:12 +-5h
#23539 = Brazilsat B2 Spelda Dec 29 01:40 Dec 29 03:07 +-5h
#23539 = Brazilsat B2 Spelda Dec 29 05:19 Dec 29 03:07 +-5h
#25572 = MCO Delta 2 r1 Dec 26 22:29 Dec 29 16:55 +-2d
#25572 = MCO Delta 2 r1 Dec 27 20:53 Dec 29 19:36 +-1d
#25572 = MCO Delta 2 r1 Dec 28 21:29 Dec 29 21:59 +-15h
#25572 = MCO Delta 2 r1 Dec 29 08:22 Dec 29 20:43 +-8h
#25572 = MCO Delta 2 r1 Dec 29 14:17 Dec 29 20:14 +-4h
#24670 = Cosmos 2335 Dec 28 14:08 Jan 1 13:03 +-2d
#24670 = Cosmos 2335 Dec 29 07:27 Jan 1 04:38 +-2d
#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r Dec 29 07:47 Jan 4 22:25 +-4d
#25532 = Iridium 2 Delta r Dec 25 10:47 Jan 6 08:19 +-7d
#25533 = Sputnik 41 Dec 28 07:25 Jan 10 10:38 +-8d
Using SatEvo, I put the decay of #25120, the Orbcomm 9 Pegasus rocket,
at December 28.60, near or shortly after a southbound equator crossing
near 126 deg E longitude (over Indonesia) at 14:21 UTC. The track
would have continued over eastern Australia towards the North Island
of New zealand at 14:36 UTC. The final OIG/SpaceCom analysis (above)
puts decay some 1,500 km beyond New Zealand at 43.5 deg S, 167.2 deg W.
I calculate that the Brazilsat B2 Spelda (#23539) decayed today at
December 29.12, near a northbound equator crossing at 02:53 UTC near
64 deg W. Again the SpaceCom conclusion is very similar.
#25572, the Mars Climate Orbiter Delta 2 rocket, is close to decay and
may do so at about December 29.89, 21:24 UTC +-90 minutes by my SatEvo
calculation. This puts it ENE-bound at about 20 deg N, 110 deg E after
crossing Vietnam. Predicted elsets for the final revs:
MCO Delta 2 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 d 233 x 131 km
1 25572U 98073B 98363.68911367 .23968419 25318+0 57355-3 0 90783
2 25572 23.8761 46.9122 0077805 115.7802 245.0244 16.33968136 2789
MCO Delta 2 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 d 216 x 130 km
1 25572U 98073B 98363.75008410 .30046258 45649+0 62722-3 0 90786
2 25572 23.8757 46.4073 0065527 116.6585 244.0138 16.37224708 2796
MCO Delta 2 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 d 195 x 129 km
1 25572U 98073B 98363.81091079 .43695711 12019+1 71045-3 0 90788
2 25572 23.8750 45.9008 0050374 117.5393 242.9733 16.41574222 2806
MCO Delta 2 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 d 159 x 123 km
1 25572U 98073B 98363.87151680 1.06586532 10125+2 89839-3 0 90786
2 25572 23.8740 45.3922 0028000 118.4240 241.8585 16.49323521 2812
Cosmos 2335 seems to have interrupted its powered descent on the
morning of December 27. There is still something not-quite-right about
the elsets since then, and I am not fully certain whether it is still
being manoeuvred in a small way. If it behaves itself, it may decay
at about December 31.9 my my current calculation. Prediction:
Cosmos 2335 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 257 x 182 km
1 24670U 96069A 98364.04309340 .03097571 40415-2 11126-2 0 91938
2 24670 65.0095 281.0654 0057011 258.7105 100.6483 16.20070350116266
Cosmos 2335 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 243 x 178 km
1 24670U 96069A 98364.53645536 .03882888 69646-2 11253-2 0 91933
2 24670 65.0083 279.2167 0049074 258.4751 100.9736 16.23478919116344
Cosmos 2335 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 224 x 172 km
1 24670U 96069A 98365.02864194 .05411029 15677-1 11409-2 0 91935
2 24670 65.0069 277.3619 0039600 258.2392 101.3165 16.27954074116427
Other updated SatEvo predictions are:
# Designation Name Predicted decay
25421 98- 46 J Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r January 5.1 +-1.5d
4583 70- 85 A Meteor 1-6 January 6.1 +-1.5d
25532 98- 66 F Iridium 2 Delta r January 6.5 +-1.5d
21148 91- 17 B Lacrosse 2 r January 8.0 +-2d
25533 98- 62 C Sputnik 41 January 9.1 +-2d
25579 98- 74 C Iridium 11A CZ-2C r January 17 +-4d
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/