Decay watch update: December 26

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 26 Dec 1998 18:08:05 +0000

Another two decay notices have appeared on OIG's WWW page:

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC
#23539 = Brazilsat B2 Spelda      Dec 25 12:33     Dec 28 10:15 +-2d     
#25120 = Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r      Dec 26 12:11     Dec 28 11:59 +-1d
#25572 = MCO Delta 2 r1           Dec 26 02:50     Dec 30 02:41 +-2d
#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r     Dec 24 09:27     Jan  4 06:41 +-7d
#25532 = Iridium 2 Delta r        Dec 25 10:47     Jan  6 08:19 +-7d


My own updated predictions are:

   #    Designation    Name               Predicted decay

 25120   97- 84 J   Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r   December 28.35+-0.4d
 23539   95- 16 D   Brazilsat B2 Spelda   December 29.1 +-0.7d
 25572   98- 73 B   MCO Delta 2 r1        December 30.3 +-0.9d
 25421   98- 46 J   Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r   January  5   +-2d
  4583   70- 85 A   Meteor 1-6             January  6   +-2d
 25532   98- 66 F   Iridium 2 Delta r      January  7   +-3d
 21148   91- 17 B   Lacrosse 2 r           January  9   +-3d
 25533   98- 62 C   Sputnik 41             January 10   +-3d
 25579   98- 74 C   Iridium 11A CZ-2C r    January 17   +-4d

         -------------------------------------

#25120, the Orbcomm Pegasus rocket was running 3.2 seconds early on
yesterday's prediction at the epoch of the latest elset:
Orbc9 Pegasus r  1.3  1.0  0.0  7.0 d            241 x 189 km
1 25120U 97084J   98360.54672394  .02973172  42870-2  10715-2 0 94303
2 25120  44.9489 271.5158 0039619 167.6127 192.4850 16.21627684 56897

My current predictions for the first three decayers:

Orbc9 Pegasus r  1.3  1.0  0.0  7.0 d            228 x 184 km
1 25120U 97084J   98361.03898375  .03966010  82606-2  11095-2 0 94304
2 25120  44.9480 268.4172 0033758 170.9061 189.1551 16.25060847 56977
Orbc9 Pegasus r  1.3  1.0  0.0  7.0 d            211 x 176 km
1 25120U 97084J   98361.53004098  .05844411  19933-1  11127-2 0 94300
2 25120  44.9468 265.3085 0026657 174.2105 185.8204 16.29743750 57051
Orbc9 Pegasus r  1.3  1.0  0.0  7.0 d            183 x 161 km
1 25120U 97084J   98362.01928138  .12673488  11250+0  10835-2 0 94303
2 25120  44.9446 262.1843 0016827 177.5315 182.4767 16.37868192 57134
Orbc9 Pegasus r  1.3  1.0  0.0  7.0 d            151 x 140 km
1 25120U 97084J   98362.26260627  .37629385  11655+1  58950-3 0 94307
2 25120  44.9422 260.6110 0008397 179.2040 180.7973 16.47813201 57171
Orbc9 Pegasus r  1.3  1.0  0.0  7.0 d            129 x 123 km
1 25120U 97084J   98362.32311211 1.11442310  12491+2  56148-3 0 94301
2 25120  44.9408 260.2149 0004180 179.6252 180.3751 16.55034528 57185

Brazilsat B2 Spelda                              1837 x 116 km
1 23539U 95016D   98361.07088930  .33292037  33214-1  15983-2 0 91212
2 23539   6.5797  90.9667 1169685 315.3741  35.7773 13.76511625568766
Brazilsat B2 Spelda                              1622 x 116 km
1 23539U 95016D   98361.50134727  .38508741  49187-1  17114-2 0 91217
2 23539   6.5779  88.2441 1038619 320.7657  32.1430 14.07271809568824
Brazilsat B2 Spelda                              1301 x 116 km
1 23539U 95016D   98362.05963661  .48437105  81026-1  18813-2 0 91216
2 23539   6.5751  84.5034 0835687 328.1731  27.0353 14.55343189568905
Brazilsat B2 Spelda                              967 x 116 km
1 23539U 95016D   98362.53156813  .66662953  20419+0  21613-2 0 91212
2 23539   6.5724  81.1011 0614569 334.9105  22.2237 15.08331080568978

MCO Delta 2 r1   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            482 x 150 km
1 25572U 98073B   98361.01491356  .04639103  25164-2  96010-3 0 90629
2 25572  23.8830  68.1606 0247538  80.3814 282.4063 15.85099293  2353
MCO Delta 2 r1   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            425 x 150 km
1 25572U 98073B   98362.01873238  .05644349  44668-2  10063-2 0 90625
2 25572  23.8813  60.3700 0206449  93.9302 268.4323 15.95326391  2515
MCO Delta 2 r1   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            349 x 148 km
1 25572U 98073B   98363.07728749  .08009116  11282-1  10261-2 0 90623
2 25572  23.8790  52.0133 0151494 108.4641 253.1883 16.09425265  2680


I'm now away for a couple of days and unable to post another update
until late on the 29th.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
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