Decay watch update: December 26
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 26 Dec 1998 18:08:05 +0000
Another two decay notices have appeared on OIG's WWW page:
Object Notice issued Predicted decay
UTC UTC
#23539 = Brazilsat B2 Spelda Dec 25 12:33 Dec 28 10:15 +-2d
#25120 = Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r Dec 26 12:11 Dec 28 11:59 +-1d
#25572 = MCO Delta 2 r1 Dec 26 02:50 Dec 30 02:41 +-2d
#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r Dec 24 09:27 Jan 4 06:41 +-7d
#25532 = Iridium 2 Delta r Dec 25 10:47 Jan 6 08:19 +-7d
My own updated predictions are:
# Designation Name Predicted decay
25120 97- 84 J Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r December 28.35+-0.4d
23539 95- 16 D Brazilsat B2 Spelda December 29.1 +-0.7d
25572 98- 73 B MCO Delta 2 r1 December 30.3 +-0.9d
25421 98- 46 J Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r January 5 +-2d
4583 70- 85 A Meteor 1-6 January 6 +-2d
25532 98- 66 F Iridium 2 Delta r January 7 +-3d
21148 91- 17 B Lacrosse 2 r January 9 +-3d
25533 98- 62 C Sputnik 41 January 10 +-3d
25579 98- 74 C Iridium 11A CZ-2C r January 17 +-4d
-------------------------------------
#25120, the Orbcomm Pegasus rocket was running 3.2 seconds early on
yesterday's prediction at the epoch of the latest elset:
Orbc9 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.0 d 241 x 189 km
1 25120U 97084J 98360.54672394 .02973172 42870-2 10715-2 0 94303
2 25120 44.9489 271.5158 0039619 167.6127 192.4850 16.21627684 56897
My current predictions for the first three decayers:
Orbc9 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.0 d 228 x 184 km
1 25120U 97084J 98361.03898375 .03966010 82606-2 11095-2 0 94304
2 25120 44.9480 268.4172 0033758 170.9061 189.1551 16.25060847 56977
Orbc9 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.0 d 211 x 176 km
1 25120U 97084J 98361.53004098 .05844411 19933-1 11127-2 0 94300
2 25120 44.9468 265.3085 0026657 174.2105 185.8204 16.29743750 57051
Orbc9 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.0 d 183 x 161 km
1 25120U 97084J 98362.01928138 .12673488 11250+0 10835-2 0 94303
2 25120 44.9446 262.1843 0016827 177.5315 182.4767 16.37868192 57134
Orbc9 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.0 d 151 x 140 km
1 25120U 97084J 98362.26260627 .37629385 11655+1 58950-3 0 94307
2 25120 44.9422 260.6110 0008397 179.2040 180.7973 16.47813201 57171
Orbc9 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.0 d 129 x 123 km
1 25120U 97084J 98362.32311211 1.11442310 12491+2 56148-3 0 94301
2 25120 44.9408 260.2149 0004180 179.6252 180.3751 16.55034528 57185
Brazilsat B2 Spelda 1837 x 116 km
1 23539U 95016D 98361.07088930 .33292037 33214-1 15983-2 0 91212
2 23539 6.5797 90.9667 1169685 315.3741 35.7773 13.76511625568766
Brazilsat B2 Spelda 1622 x 116 km
1 23539U 95016D 98361.50134727 .38508741 49187-1 17114-2 0 91217
2 23539 6.5779 88.2441 1038619 320.7657 32.1430 14.07271809568824
Brazilsat B2 Spelda 1301 x 116 km
1 23539U 95016D 98362.05963661 .48437105 81026-1 18813-2 0 91216
2 23539 6.5751 84.5034 0835687 328.1731 27.0353 14.55343189568905
Brazilsat B2 Spelda 967 x 116 km
1 23539U 95016D 98362.53156813 .66662953 20419+0 21613-2 0 91212
2 23539 6.5724 81.1011 0614569 334.9105 22.2237 15.08331080568978
MCO Delta 2 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 d 482 x 150 km
1 25572U 98073B 98361.01491356 .04639103 25164-2 96010-3 0 90629
2 25572 23.8830 68.1606 0247538 80.3814 282.4063 15.85099293 2353
MCO Delta 2 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 d 425 x 150 km
1 25572U 98073B 98362.01873238 .05644349 44668-2 10063-2 0 90625
2 25572 23.8813 60.3700 0206449 93.9302 268.4323 15.95326391 2515
MCO Delta 2 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 d 349 x 148 km
1 25572U 98073B 98363.07728749 .08009116 11282-1 10261-2 0 90623
2 25572 23.8790 52.0133 0151494 108.4641 253.1883 16.09425265 2680
I'm now away for a couple of days and unable to post another update
until late on the 29th.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/