Decay watch update: December 23

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 23 Dec 1998 21:10:01 +0000

OIG has published a decay notice for #25572, the Delta 2 rocket that
launched the Mars Climate Observer on December 11. Two decay notices are
now in effect:

There is, however, a further decay notice for the Orbcomm 9 rocket:

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC
#25120 = Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r      Dec 21 09:04     Dec 28 09:33 +-4d
#25572 = MCO Delta 2 r1           Dec 23 11:58     Dec 30 05:42 +-4d

My own current analyses show the Pegasus decaying at December 28.6 
+-1 day and the MCO Delta at December 31.1 +-1.5 day.

Current elsets for these are:
Orbc9 Pegasus r  1.3  1.0  0.0  7.0 d            287 x 209 km
1 25120U 97084J   98357.39199139  .01170462  98323-5  93920-3 0  4121
2 25120  44.9488 291.1371 0058641 144.4906 215.9770 16.09506932 56389
MCO Delta 2 r1   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            616 x 155 km
1 25572U 98073B   98357.58728353  .02797442 -12157-4  90840-3 0   453
2 25572  23.8877  94.1652 0340722  35.1575 327.1021 15.60654232  1819

            --------------------------------

I omitted #24670 = Cosmos 2335 from my latest SatEvo decay list since I
suspect it is still manoeuvring slightly and the decay date implied by
its elsets is continuing to slip. At present, decay is indicated for
about January 2. OIG (or USSPACECOM) seems to have withdrawn the decay
notice they had issued for this, though the latest 60d Decay Forecast
has it decaying today, December 23. The current elset is:
Cosmos 2335      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            324 x 204 km
1 24670U 96069A   98357.39418792  .00735286  69649-5  67428-3 0  1637
2 24670  65.0185 305.5366 0089957 263.1890  95.9004 16.03761602115197


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
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