SatEvo decay list #67
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 20 Dec 1998 19:25:08 +0000
SatEvo decay list #67 (issued 1998 December 20)
This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate
their decay by 1999 February 10, although some larger and/or more
interesting decayers are included beyond that date.
This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via
my SatEvo page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all
the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus
elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle,
and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects.
# Designation Name ---- Decay (1998/9) ----
Predicted Actual?
24264 94- 29 MP STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 1
25426 94- 29 ADS STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 2? Notes 2,3
11240 79- 4 A Molniya 3-11 December 2.80
25294 86- 17 MQ Mir VDU December 2.89
24237 94- 29 LL STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 4
21337 75- 52 BF Nimbus 6 Delta deb December 4.7
25534 86- 17 MV Mir deb December 5.3
8368 75-100 C GOES 1 Delta 1 r2 December 6.30 Note 4
23067 89- 89 BN COBE deb December 6? Notes 2,3
24008 94- 29 BD STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 7
24816 95- 71 D Cosmos 2326 deb December 11.7
22439 92- 93 EG C 2227 Zenit deb December 13
25570 98- 67 C ISS deb December 14
25443 94- 29 ADY STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 15? Notes 2,3
22928 93- 77 B Telstar 401 Centaur r December 17.31
24463 94- 29 TL STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 18 Note 3
25362 94- 29 ADP STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 18? Notes 2,3
25499 98- 25 E C 2350 aux motor December 19.44
3508 68- 91 E Cosmos 249 deb December 21
25581 98- 74 E Iridium deb December 21? Note 6
9794 70-102 F Cosmos 381 r deb December 22
24624 94- 29 AAC STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 22? Note 2
25210 87- 68 AM Meteor 2-16 deb December 23
25582 98- 74 F Iridium deb December 23? Note 6
24178 94- 29 JD STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 24
25583 98- 74 G Iridium deb December 24? Note 6
25584 98- 74 H Iridium deb December 24? Note 6
25441 94- 29 ADW STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 25? Note 2
24086 94- 29 EH STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 26? Note 2
3381 65- 82 MT OV2-1/LCS 2 deb December 27
24475 94- 29 TY STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 27
25120 97- 84 J Orbcomm 8 Pegasus r December 28
2988 65- 82 MT OV2-1/LCS 2 deb December 30
23539 95- 16 D Brazilsat B2 Spelda December 30
4610 70- 25 N Nimbus 4 Agena deb December 31
24693 94- 29 ABB STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 31? Note 2
25190 87- 68 R Meteor 2-16 deb December 31? Note 2
25572 98- 73 B MCO Delta 2 r1 January 1
9974 68- 97 DW Cosmos 252 deb January 1
22492 92- 93 GB Cosmos 2227 deb January 2
21083 90- 81 CJ FY-1B CZ-4 deb January 3
25192 87- 68 T Meteor 2-16 deb January 3
24101 94- 29 EY STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 4
4583 70- 85 A Meteor 1-6 January 5
24345 94- 29 NW STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 5
25193 87- 68 U Meteor 2-16 deb January 5
21148 91- 17 B Lacrosse 2 r January 6
25421 98- 46 J Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r January 6
24159 94- 29 HJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 7
25455 87- 68 CC Meteor 2-16 deb January 7
25532 98- 66 F Iridium 2 Delta r January 9
25247 87- 68 BQ Meteor 2-16 deb January 10
25533 98- 62 C Sputnik 41 January 10
25440 94- 29 ADV STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 11
23066 89- 89 BM COBE deb January 13
25211 87- 68 AN Meteor 2-16 deb January 14
22896 83 -75 N Cosmos 1484 deb January 17
25230 87- 68 BH Meteor 2-16 deb January 17
25579 98- 74 C Iridium CZ-2C r ? January 17? Note 6
24038 94- 29 CK STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 20
24532 94- 29 WG STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 22
16187 85- 99 A Molniya 1-65 January 24? Note 5
25065 97- 74 C ETS-7 r January 24
25186 87- 68 M Meteor 2-16 deb January 26
25218 87- 68 AV Meteor 2-16 deb January 26
23972 94- 29 S STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 27
23974 94- 29 U STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 27
3564 68- 97 Q Cosmos 252 deb January 28
24369 94- 29 PW STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 28
24542 94- 29 WS STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 29
25207 87- 68 AJ Meteor 2-16 deb January 29
24565 94- 29 XR STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 30
24019 94- 29 BQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 1
23075 89- 89 BW COBE deb February 2
5399 71- 67 L OV1-20/OV1-21 deb February 3
25452 87- 68 BZ Meteor 2-16 deb February 3
24405 94- 29 RJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 5
19145 87- 20 BE Cosmos 1823 deb February 6
25562 98- 71 C SWAS Pegasus deb February 10
22584 93- 17 D GPS 2-19 r2 February 12
16683 86- 31 A Molniya 3-28 February 20? Note 5
23907 96- 29 B NOSS 2-3 r February 26
25472 98- 51 F Iridium 82 Delta r March 3
23529 95- 13 B Intlst 705 Centaur r March 6
25166 98- 8 E Globalstar 1 Delta r March 27
7418 74- 66 B Cosmos 673 r April
8755 76- 24 B Cosmos 808 r April
12519 81- 54 E Molniya 3-16 r2 April
14329 83- 94 B Satcom 2R Delta r April
22583 93- 17 C GPS 2-19 r1 April
25580 98- 74 D Iridium Smart Disp ? April? Note 6
4120 69- 84 B Meteor 1-2 r May
25347 98- 32 F Iridium 70 Delta r May
20352 89- 96 A Granat June
23186 94- 43 B APStar 1 CZ-3 r June
16609 86- 17 A Mir July Note 1
Notes
1. The predicted decay of Mir (#16609 = 86- 17 A) is on the basis
that it is not manoeuvred in orbit before atmospheric drag brings it
down normally. In fact, I understand that it is intended to raise
the orbit on December 22 and again in 1999 March.
2. No recent elsets.
3. USSPACECOM has yet to confirm this decay.
4. #8368 was identified incorrectly as "GEOS 1 Delta 1 r2" in my
previous lists.
5. Thanks to Michael Earl for alerting me to the decays of
Molniyas 1-65 and 3-28.
6. The identities of the objects from the 98- 74 Iridium launch on
December 19 have yet to be confirmed. Also, too few elsets have
appeared to allow a reliable estimate of their decay.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/