Decay watch update: December 16

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 16 Dec 1998 19:55:06 +0000

OIG have the current decay notices in effect:

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC
#22928 = Telstar 401 Centaur r    Dec 16 06:59     Dec 17 06:11 +-14h
#25120 = Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r      Dec 16 10:36     Dec 29 11:40 +-8d
#25499 = C 2350 aux motor         Dec 16 17:30     Dec 18 16:28 +-1d

Current elsets for these:

Telstar 401 Centaur r                            1014 x 114 km
1 22928U 93077B   98350.50250571  .42426311 -96406-5  12918-2 0  3596
2 22928  23.4910   7.1000 0647574   7.9417 165.5054 15.00992353 66334
Orbc9 Pegasus r  1.3  1.0  0.0  7.0 d            334 x 228 km
1 25120U 97084J   98350.53694451  .00660893  19771-3  99603-3 0  3859
2 25120  44.9519 333.0444 0080142  98.6944 262.2960 15.97664520 55282
C 2350 Prot deb (aux motor)                      5308 x 98 km
1 25499U 98025E   98350.78974878  .39849072  16793-4  18108-2 0  1147
2 25499  47.2070 213.4267 2868274  77.2543   6.5040 10.03254024  5710

I now predict decay of #22928, the Centaur, at December 17.31 
(07:28 UTC +-6h). SatEvo predicted elsets:
Telstar 401 Centaur r                            829 x 114 km
1 22928U 93077B   98350.80011109  .56971227  17587+0  14966-2 0 93597
2 22928  23.4851   5.0161 0521935  11.5838 349.5725 15.31481434 66384
Telstar 401 Centaur r                            626 x 114 km
1 22928U 93077B   98351.05794027  .82520055  56535+0  18138-2 0 93591
2 22928  23.4793   3.1252 0379133  14.8886 346.1978 15.66220367 66421
Telstar 401 Centaur r                            393 x 114 km
1 22928U 93077B   98351.24673661 1.58608411  34222+1  25229-2 0 93598
2 22928  23.4729   1.6655 0210549  17.4401 343.2721 16.07560239 66455
Telstar 401 Centaur r                            251 x 113 km
1 22928U 93077B   98351.30828673 3.37878207  27726+2  35215-2 0 93599
2 22928  23.4697   1.1657 0104496  18.3138 342.0596 16.33970299 66464

I show the Pegasus rocket, #25120, decaying on December 28 +-3 days and
#25499, the "aux motor", decaying at December 19.3 +-0.7 day. 

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/