Decay watch: Cosmos 2335
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 9 Dec 1998 20:38:59 +0000
OIG has published a decay prediction for Cosmos 2335 giving a predicted
decay on December 14 @ 15:15 UTC +-3 days.
Cosmos 2335 was manoeuvring frequently near a 421x400 km orbit until
December 6 when successive elsets showed a major reduction in perigee:
Cosmos 2335 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 421 x 400 km
1 24670U 96069A 98340.97889474 .00004242 00000-0 74011-4 0 629
2 24670 65.0319 4.2647 0015894 297.2841 62.6685 15.52162311112585
Cosmos 2335 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 415 x 224 km
1 24670U 96069A 98342.07152778 -.03305865 26667-2 -65473-2 0 643
2 24670 65.0278 0.5541 0142686 270.7018 89.9356 15.83951587112754
The latest elset is:
Cosmos 2335 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 409 x 226 km
1 24670U 96069A 98343.52403950 .01730209 13974-2 35472-2 0 806
2 24670 65.0366 355.4141 0136731 272.0974 86.4427 15.84597456112988
My SatEvo prediction, based only on today's latest five elsets (I
suspect there may have been another small manoeuvre yesterday) suggest
decay at December 15.0 +-0.9 day. Shadow entry occurs at ~19h local time
while northbound near 18 deg N lat, with eclipse exit southbound at ~05h
local time near 29 deg N lat.
Prediction:
Cosmos 2335 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 399 x 225 km
1 24670U 96069A 98344.02861493 .02053243 85732-3 38926-2 0 90807
2 24670 65.0359 353.6214 0130258 271.8651 86.6434 15.86617156113060
Cosmos 2335 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 388 x 223 km
1 24670U 96069A 98344.53255077 .02195889 10376-2 39061-2 0 90803
2 24670 65.0352 351.8255 0123456 271.6324 86.9539 15.88756142113144
Cosmos 2335 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 377 x 222 km
1 24670U 96069A 98345.03578561 .02370599 12915-2 39255-2 0 90804
2 24670 65.0343 350.0263 0116266 271.3995 87.2689 15.91050994113221
Of course, this object might manoeuvre off the stage altogether :)
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/