Decay watch: Cosmos 2335

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 9 Dec 1998 20:38:59 +0000

OIG has published a decay prediction for Cosmos 2335 giving a predicted
decay on December 14 @ 15:15 UTC +-3 days.

Cosmos 2335 was manoeuvring frequently near a 421x400 km orbit until
December 6 when successive elsets showed a major reduction in perigee:
Cosmos 2335      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            421 x 400 km
1 24670U 96069A   98340.97889474  .00004242  00000-0  74011-4 0   629
2 24670  65.0319   4.2647 0015894 297.2841  62.6685 15.52162311112585
Cosmos 2335      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            415 x 224 km
1 24670U 96069A   98342.07152778 -.03305865  26667-2 -65473-2 0   643
2 24670  65.0278   0.5541 0142686 270.7018  89.9356 15.83951587112754

The latest elset is:
Cosmos 2335      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            409 x 226 km
1 24670U 96069A   98343.52403950  .01730209  13974-2  35472-2 0   806
2 24670  65.0366 355.4141 0136731 272.0974  86.4427 15.84597456112988

My SatEvo prediction, based only on today's latest five elsets (I
suspect there may have been another small manoeuvre yesterday) suggest
decay at December 15.0 +-0.9 day. Shadow entry occurs at ~19h local time
while northbound near 18 deg N lat, with eclipse exit southbound at ~05h
local time near 29 deg N lat.

Prediction:
Cosmos 2335      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            399 x 225 km
1 24670U 96069A   98344.02861493  .02053243  85732-3  38926-2 0 90807
2 24670  65.0359 353.6214 0130258 271.8651  86.6434 15.86617156113060
Cosmos 2335      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            388 x 223 km
1 24670U 96069A   98344.53255077  .02195889  10376-2  39061-2 0 90803
2 24670  65.0352 351.8255 0123456 271.6324  86.9539 15.88756142113144
Cosmos 2335      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            377 x 222 km
1 24670U 96069A   98345.03578561  .02370599  12915-2  39255-2 0 90804
2 24670  65.0343 350.0263 0116266 271.3995  87.2689 15.91050994113221

Of course, this object might manoeuvre off the stage altogether :)

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/