SatEvo decay list #66

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 1 Dec 1998 20:10:59 +0000

SatEvo decay list #66  (issued 1998 December 1)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses 
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published 
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. 
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate 
their decay by January 15, although some larger and/or more 
interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all
the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus
elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, 
and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects.


   #    Designation    Name              ---- Decay (1998/9) ----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 25251   87- 68 BU  Meteor 2-16 deb                November 14
 23316   94- 65 D   Solidar. Ariane deb            November 17
 24218   94- 29 KR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 18?  Note 4
 22528   93- 10 H   C 2234 aux motor               November 18.59
 23078   89- 89 BZ  COBE deb                       November 20?  Notes 2,3
 25536   86- 17 MX  Mir deb                        November 20?  Note 3
 25458   87- 68 CF  Meteor 2-16 deb                November 21?  Notes 2,3
 24942   94- 29 ACE STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 23?  Notes 2,3
 25537   86- 17 MY  Mir deb                        November 23.7
 24269   94- 29 MU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 25   Note 3
 25232   87- 68 BK  Meteor 2-16 deb                November 25?  Notes 2,3
 25535   86- 17 MW  Mir deb                        November 25
 25545   98- 67 B   Zarya Proton r                 November 27.23
 25229   87- 68 BG  Meteor 2-16 deb                November 27?  Notes 2,3
 24781   95-  8 G   Cosmos 2306 deb                November 27.7
 24069   94- 29 DS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 28   Note 3
 24603   94- 29 ZF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 28?  Note 3
 23772   95- 11 K   SFU deb                        November 28.55
 23101   94- 28 A   MSTI 2                         November 28.99
 24264   94- 29 MP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  1
 25426   94- 29 ADS STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  2?  Note 2
 25294   86- 17 MQ  Mir VDU               December  2.7
 11240   79-  4 A   Molniya 3-11          December  3.1
 21337   75- 52 BF  Nimbus 6 Delta deb    December  4
 24237   94- 29 LL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  4
 25534   86- 17 MV  Mir deb               December  5
  8368   75-100 C   GEOS 1 Delta 1 r2     December  6
 23067   89- 89 BN  COBE deb              December  6?  Note 2
 24008   94- 29 BD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  7
 24816   95- 71 D   Cosmos 2326 deb       December 10
 25210   87- 68 AM  Meteor 2-16 deb       December 10
 25443   94- 29 ADY STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 11
 22439   92- 93 EG  C 2227 Zenit deb      December 12
  9794   70-102 F   Cosmos 381 r deb      December 15
  3508   68- 91 E   Cosmos 249 deb        December 16
 22928   93- 77 B   Telstar 401 Centaur r December 17
 25362   94- 29 ADP STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 18?  Note 2
 24178   94- 29 JD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 22
 24624   94- 29 AAC STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 22?  Note 2
  3381   65- 82 MT  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb       December 23
  4610   70- 25 N   Nimbus 4 Agena deb    December 23
  9974   68- 97 DW  Cosmos 252 deb        December 23
 24086   94- 29 EH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 24
  2988   65- 82 MT  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb       December 25
 24101   94- 29 EY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 25
 24159   94- 29 HJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 26
 24345   94- 29 NW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 26
 25499   98- 25 E   C 2350 aux motor      December 26
 24463   94- 29 TL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 27?  Note 2
 24475   94- 29 TY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 27
 25213   87- 68 AQ  Meteor 2-16 deb       December 27
 25247   87- 68 BQ  Meteor 2-16 deb       December 28
 25211   87- 68 AN  Meteor 2-16 deb       December 29
 23066   89- 89 BM  COBE deb              December 30
  4583   70- 85 A   Meteor 1-6            December 31
 22492   92- 93 GB  Cosmos 2227 deb       December 31
 24693   94- 29 ABB STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 31?  Note 2
 25120   97- 84 J   Orbcomm 8 Pegasus r   December 31
 25190   87- 68 R   Meteor 2-16 deb       December 31?  Note 2
 25421   98- 46 J   Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r   January  1
 21148   91- 17 B   Lacrosse 2 r           January  2
 25193   87- 68 U   Meteor 2-16 deb        January  2
 25441   94- 29 ADW STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  2
 25207   87- 68 AJ  Meteor 2-16 deb        January  3
 25192   87- 68 T   Meteor 2-16 deb        January  5
 25532   98- 66 F   Iridium 2 Delta r      January  5
 21083   90- 81 CJ  FY-1B CZ-4 deb         January  8
 25533   98- 62 C   Sputnik 41             January  9
 22896   83 -75 N   Cosmos 1484 deb        January 10
 24038   94- 29 CK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 10
 23972   94- 29 S   STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 11
 23539   95- 16 D   Brazilsat B2 Spelda    January 14
 25065   97- 74 C   ETS-7 r                January 15
 25455   87- 68 CC  Meteor 2-16 deb        January 16
 22584   93- 17 D   GPS 2-19 r2           February 16
 23529   95- 13 B   Intlst 705 Centaur r  February 17
 23907   96- 29 B   NOSS 2-3 r            February 21
  7418   74- 66 B   Cosmos 673 r             March
 25166   98-  8 E   Globalstar 1 Delta r     March
 25472   98- 51 F   Iridium 82 Delta r       March
  8755   76- 24 B   Cosmos 808 r             April
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2          April
 14329   83- 94 B   Satcom 2R Delta r        April
  4120   69- 84 B   Meteor 1-2 r               May
 22583   93- 17 C   GPS 2-19 r1                May
 25347   98- 32 F   Iridium 70 Delta r         May
 20352   89- 96 A   Granat                    June
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                       July   Note 1
 23186   94- 43 B   APStar 1 CZ-3 r           July


Notes

1. The predicted decay of Mir (#16609 = 86- 17 A) assumes that 
it is not manoeuvred in orbit before atmospheric drag brings it 
down normally.

2. No recent elsets.

3. USSPACECOM has yet to confirm this decay.

4. I had #24218 decaying at November 13? in my previous list. 
Additional elsets show that it survived longer. USSPACECOM state 
that decay was on November 21.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/