SatEvo decay list #66 (issued 1998 December 1) This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe. Information about SeeSat-L is available at http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by January 15, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects. # Designation Name ---- Decay (1998/9) ---- Predicted Actual? 25251 87- 68 BU Meteor 2-16 deb November 14 23316 94- 65 D Solidar. Ariane deb November 17 24218 94- 29 KR STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 18? Note 4 22528 93- 10 H C 2234 aux motor November 18.59 23078 89- 89 BZ COBE deb November 20? Notes 2,3 25536 86- 17 MX Mir deb November 20? Note 3 25458 87- 68 CF Meteor 2-16 deb November 21? Notes 2,3 24942 94- 29 ACE STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 23? Notes 2,3 25537 86- 17 MY Mir deb November 23.7 24269 94- 29 MU STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 25 Note 3 25232 87- 68 BK Meteor 2-16 deb November 25? Notes 2,3 25535 86- 17 MW Mir deb November 25 25545 98- 67 B Zarya Proton r November 27.23 25229 87- 68 BG Meteor 2-16 deb November 27? Notes 2,3 24781 95- 8 G Cosmos 2306 deb November 27.7 24069 94- 29 DS STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 28 Note 3 24603 94- 29 ZF STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 28? Note 3 23772 95- 11 K SFU deb November 28.55 23101 94- 28 A MSTI 2 November 28.99 24264 94- 29 MP STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 1 25426 94- 29 ADS STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 2? Note 2 25294 86- 17 MQ Mir VDU December 2.7 11240 79- 4 A Molniya 3-11 December 3.1 21337 75- 52 BF Nimbus 6 Delta deb December 4 24237 94- 29 LL STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 4 25534 86- 17 MV Mir deb December 5 8368 75-100 C GEOS 1 Delta 1 r2 December 6 23067 89- 89 BN COBE deb December 6? Note 2 24008 94- 29 BD STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 7 24816 95- 71 D Cosmos 2326 deb December 10 25210 87- 68 AM Meteor 2-16 deb December 10 25443 94- 29 ADY STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 11 22439 92- 93 EG C 2227 Zenit deb December 12 9794 70-102 F Cosmos 381 r deb December 15 3508 68- 91 E Cosmos 249 deb December 16 22928 93- 77 B Telstar 401 Centaur r December 17 25362 94- 29 ADP STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 18? Note 2 24178 94- 29 JD STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 22 24624 94- 29 AAC STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 22? Note 2 3381 65- 82 MT OV2-1/LCS 2 deb December 23 4610 70- 25 N Nimbus 4 Agena deb December 23 9974 68- 97 DW Cosmos 252 deb December 23 24086 94- 29 EH STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 24 2988 65- 82 MT OV2-1/LCS 2 deb December 25 24101 94- 29 EY STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 25 24159 94- 29 HJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 26 24345 94- 29 NW STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 26 25499 98- 25 E C 2350 aux motor December 26 24463 94- 29 TL STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 27? Note 2 24475 94- 29 TY STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 27 25213 87- 68 AQ Meteor 2-16 deb December 27 25247 87- 68 BQ Meteor 2-16 deb December 28 25211 87- 68 AN Meteor 2-16 deb December 29 23066 89- 89 BM COBE deb December 30 4583 70- 85 A Meteor 1-6 December 31 22492 92- 93 GB Cosmos 2227 deb December 31 24693 94- 29 ABB STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 31? Note 2 25120 97- 84 J Orbcomm 8 Pegasus r December 31 25190 87- 68 R Meteor 2-16 deb December 31? Note 2 25421 98- 46 J Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r January 1 21148 91- 17 B Lacrosse 2 r January 2 25193 87- 68 U Meteor 2-16 deb January 2 25441 94- 29 ADW STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 2 25207 87- 68 AJ Meteor 2-16 deb January 3 25192 87- 68 T Meteor 2-16 deb January 5 25532 98- 66 F Iridium 2 Delta r January 5 21083 90- 81 CJ FY-1B CZ-4 deb January 8 25533 98- 62 C Sputnik 41 January 9 22896 83 -75 N Cosmos 1484 deb January 10 24038 94- 29 CK STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 10 23972 94- 29 S STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 11 23539 95- 16 D Brazilsat B2 Spelda January 14 25065 97- 74 C ETS-7 r January 15 25455 87- 68 CC Meteor 2-16 deb January 16 22584 93- 17 D GPS 2-19 r2 February 16 23529 95- 13 B Intlst 705 Centaur r February 17 23907 96- 29 B NOSS 2-3 r February 21 7418 74- 66 B Cosmos 673 r March 25166 98- 8 E Globalstar 1 Delta r March 25472 98- 51 F Iridium 82 Delta r March 8755 76- 24 B Cosmos 808 r April 12519 81- 54 E Molniya 3-16 r2 April 14329 83- 94 B Satcom 2R Delta r April 4120 69- 84 B Meteor 1-2 r May 22583 93- 17 C GPS 2-19 r1 May 25347 98- 32 F Iridium 70 Delta r May 20352 89- 96 A Granat June 16609 86- 17 A Mir July Note 1 23186 94- 43 B APStar 1 CZ-3 r July Notes 1. The predicted decay of Mir (#16609 = 86- 17 A) assumes that it is not manoeuvred in orbit before atmospheric drag brings it down normally. 2. No recent elsets. 3. USSPACECOM has yet to confirm this decay. 4. I had #24218 decaying at November 13? in my previous list. Additional elsets show that it survived longer. USSPACECOM state that decay was on November 21. Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/