Re: Decay watch: Molniya 3-11 & Mir VDU

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 1 Dec 1998 19:10:44 +0000

Against the prediction I posted yesterday, Molniya 3-11 was running 81
seconds early at the epoch of the latest official elset:

Molniya 3-11                                     2029 x 65 km
1 11240U 79004A   98335.57510507  .44583618  00000-0  15917-3 0   734
2 11240  61.9046 337.8362 1322042 285.6638  60.3607 13.56917152149613

At 65 km, the perigee looks incredibly low and I have raised it to 80 km
for the following prediction which leads to decay at December 3.07
(01:40 +-10 hours):

Molniya 3-11                                     1675 x 80 km
1 11240U 79004A   98336.01014864  .60575427  11673+0  50711-3 0 90733
2 11240  61.8837 336.5510 1099282 285.8134  62.3555 14.04751488149673
Molniya 3-11                                     1140 x 80 km
1 11240U 79004A   98336.56529450  .90826875  32245+0  61056-3 0 90736
2 11240  61.8495 334.7510 0758739 286.0265  65.7538 14.86137520149751
Molniya 3-11                                     889 x 80 km
1 11240U 79004A   98336.76484750 1.18374162  66787+0  69083-3 0 90735
2 11240  61.8355 334.0419 0589305 286.1118  67.4824 15.27196233149788
Molniya 3-11                                     353 x 80 km
1 11240U 79004A   98337.02105134 3.90280276  20669+2  12933-2 0 90737
2 11240  61.8039 333.0490 0207019 286.2327  71.4997 16.21211650149824

         -----------------------------------------------

The latest elset for the Mir VDU, already 13 hours old, is:

Mir VDU          4.0  0.0  0.0  6.5 d            196 x 195 km
1 25294U 86017MQ  98335.24157073  .02484679  00000-0  58749-3 0  2686
2 25294  51.6341 258.9768 0000752 205.9221 154.2449 16.28866109 36874

This shows it 17 seconds late on yesterday's prediction.

My new analysis indicates decay at December 2.68 (16:15 UTC +-7 hours).

Prediction:
Mir VDU          4.0  0.0  0.0  6.5 d            176 x 176 km
1 25294U 86017MQ  98336.03740191  .06509448  29116-1  72959-3 0 92687
2 25294  51.6321 254.5273 0000503 209.2423 150.7548 16.36264045 37007
Mir VDU          4.0  0.0  0.0  6.5 d            166 x 165 km
1 25294U 86017MQ  98336.28141833  .09815592  63620-1  70147-3 0 92680
2 25294  51.6310 253.1516 0000397 210.2689 149.7287 16.40132469 37048
Mir VDU          4.0  0.0  0.0  6.5 d            148 x 148 km
1 25294U 86017MQ  98336.52469464  .20062576  33156+0  45206-3 0 92686
2 25294  51.6291 251.7703 0000249 211.2998 148.6987 16.46730998 37084
Mir VDU          4.0  0.0  0.0  6.5 d            140 x 140 km
1 25294U 86017MQ  98336.58532727  .29124458  78356+0  36917-3 0 92682
2 25294  51.6283 251.4236 0000195 211.5587 148.4402 16.49634057 37093
Mir VDU          4.0  0.0  0.0  6.5 d            127 x 127 km
1 25294U 86017MQ  98336.64582369  .62210892  45105+1  34692-3 0 92686
2 25294  51.6271 251.0758 0000119 211.8183 148.1810 16.54577589 37100

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
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