Against the prediction I posted yesterday, Molniya 3-11 was running 81 seconds early at the epoch of the latest official elset: Molniya 3-11 2029 x 65 km 1 11240U 79004A 98335.57510507 .44583618 00000-0 15917-3 0 734 2 11240 61.9046 337.8362 1322042 285.6638 60.3607 13.56917152149613 At 65 km, the perigee looks incredibly low and I have raised it to 80 km for the following prediction which leads to decay at December 3.07 (01:40 +-10 hours): Molniya 3-11 1675 x 80 km 1 11240U 79004A 98336.01014864 .60575427 11673+0 50711-3 0 90733 2 11240 61.8837 336.5510 1099282 285.8134 62.3555 14.04751488149673 Molniya 3-11 1140 x 80 km 1 11240U 79004A 98336.56529450 .90826875 32245+0 61056-3 0 90736 2 11240 61.8495 334.7510 0758739 286.0265 65.7538 14.86137520149751 Molniya 3-11 889 x 80 km 1 11240U 79004A 98336.76484750 1.18374162 66787+0 69083-3 0 90735 2 11240 61.8355 334.0419 0589305 286.1118 67.4824 15.27196233149788 Molniya 3-11 353 x 80 km 1 11240U 79004A 98337.02105134 3.90280276 20669+2 12933-2 0 90737 2 11240 61.8039 333.0490 0207019 286.2327 71.4997 16.21211650149824 ----------------------------------------------- The latest elset for the Mir VDU, already 13 hours old, is: Mir VDU 4.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 d 196 x 195 km 1 25294U 86017MQ 98335.24157073 .02484679 00000-0 58749-3 0 2686 2 25294 51.6341 258.9768 0000752 205.9221 154.2449 16.28866109 36874 This shows it 17 seconds late on yesterday's prediction. My new analysis indicates decay at December 2.68 (16:15 UTC +-7 hours). Prediction: Mir VDU 4.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 d 176 x 176 km 1 25294U 86017MQ 98336.03740191 .06509448 29116-1 72959-3 0 92687 2 25294 51.6321 254.5273 0000503 209.2423 150.7548 16.36264045 37007 Mir VDU 4.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 d 166 x 165 km 1 25294U 86017MQ 98336.28141833 .09815592 63620-1 70147-3 0 92680 2 25294 51.6310 253.1516 0000397 210.2689 149.7287 16.40132469 37048 Mir VDU 4.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 d 148 x 148 km 1 25294U 86017MQ 98336.52469464 .20062576 33156+0 45206-3 0 92686 2 25294 51.6291 251.7703 0000249 211.2998 148.6987 16.46730998 37084 Mir VDU 4.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 d 140 x 140 km 1 25294U 86017MQ 98336.58532727 .29124458 78356+0 36917-3 0 92682 2 25294 51.6283 251.4236 0000195 211.5587 148.4402 16.49634057 37093 Mir VDU 4.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 d 127 x 127 km 1 25294U 86017MQ 98336.64582369 .62210892 45105+1 34692-3 0 92686 2 25294 51.6271 251.0758 0000119 211.8183 148.1810 16.54577589 37100 Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/