C 2348 Soyuz-U decay update

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 19 Dec 1997 20:55:34 +0000

The decaying Soyuz-U rocket was running 71 seconds ahead of my 2-day-old
"9020" SatEvo prediction at the epoch of the latest elset from OIG:
C 2348 Soyuz-U r                                 245 x 148 km
1 25096U 97080B   97353.60408252  .04390297  60229-5  30782-3 0   318
2 25096  67.1442 292.5604 0073753  92.5781 268.3773 16.28723574   644

My current prediction is for decay at about December 20.66 
= 16h UTC +-4 hours.

Predicted elsets to decay from my "9031" evolution:
C 2348 Soyuz-U r                                 231 x 146 km
1 25096U 97080B   97353.84947082  .06005198  16308-1  34662-3 0 90313
2 25096  67.1433 291.7047 0064796  92.3075 268.4345 16.31520362   681
C 2348 Soyuz-U r                                 220 x 145 km
1 25096U 97080B   97354.03323693  .07169811  27652-1  34810-3 0 90314
2 25096  67.1426 291.0616 0057177  92.1042 268.5506 16.33920876   715
C 2348 Soyuz-U r                                 206 x 142 km
1 25096U 97080B   97354.21670195  .09259458  52144-1  35177-3 0 90316
2 25096  67.1415 290.4170 0048387  91.9005 268.6538 16.36896023   748
C 2348 Soyuz-U r                                 188 x 139 km
1 25096U 97080B   97354.39977585  .13703684  12429+0  35260-3 0 90311
2 25096  67.1402 289.7706 0037621  91.6962 268.7347 16.40981226   775
C 2348 Soyuz-U r                                 159 x 130 km
1 25096U 97080B   97354.58225201  .30745184  76086+0  35953-3 0 90311
2 25096  67.1380 289.1214 0022191  91.4912 268.7630 16.48153228   807
C 2348 Soyuz-U r                                 139 x 122 km
1 25096U 97080B   97354.64283688  .64875594  38035+1  40913-3 0 90312
2 25096  67.1367 288.9039 0013635  91.4226 268.7336 16.53374091   818

I hope to post at least one further update before re-entry.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/