Re: Astra 1G rk decay watch
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 4 Dec 1997 21:00:49 +0000
The latest OIG elset for the decaying Proton-K from the Astra 1G launch
is:
Astra 1G Proton-K r 185 x 142 km
1 25072U 97076B 97338.67011821 .05509353 00000-0 16725-3 0 121
2 25072 51.5929 59.1853 0032802 275.2219 84.5769 16.40865773 289
This is shows it 14.0 seconds late with respect to the "9005" evolution
I posted yesterday.
Carrying a SatEvo evolution through the latest three elsets (since
97338.36) leads me to predict decay at about December 5.32 (+/- 2
hours).
Here are my predicted elsets through to decay:
Astra 1G Proton-K r 175 x 139 km
1 25072U 97076B 97338.85266446 .07652947 42370-1 17019-3 0 90129
2 25072 51.5922 58.1494 0027795 275.9971 83.6862 16.43341183 314
Astra 1G Proton-K r 171 x 137 km
1 25072U 97076B 97338.91345817 .08519344 54149-1 16724-3 0 90129
2 25072 51.5919 57.8036 0025914 276.2559 83.4489 16.44322170 325
Astra 1G Proton-K r 167 x 136 km
1 25072U 97076B 97338.97421376 .09650703 72004-1 16454-3 0 90126
2 25072 51.5916 57.4574 0023886 276.5149 83.2131 16.45422771 331
Astra 1G Proton-K r 162 x 134 km
1 25072U 97076B 97339.03492624 .11200617 10117+0 16233-3 0 90126
2 25072 51.5913 57.1110 0021671 276.7742 82.9792 16.46683251 345
Astra 1G Proton-K r 157 x 132 km
1 25072U 97076B 97339.09558879 .13476281 15422+0 16109-3 0 90127
2 25072 51.5909 56.7641 0019205 277.0338 82.7478 16.48170279 352
Astra 1G Proton-K r 150 x 129 km
1 25072U 97076B 97339.15619135 .17203908 26866+0 16200-3 0 90121
2 25072 51.5904 56.4168 0016373 277.2937 82.5201 16.50008159 361
Astra 1G Proton-K r 141 x 124 km
1 25072U 97076B 97339.21671723 .24670550 60670+0 16872-3 0 90124
2 25072 51.5898 56.0688 0012941 277.5541 82.2988 16.52479737 373
Astra 1G Proton-K r 127 x 117 km
1 25072U 97076B 97339.27713129 .49941917 28934+1 20288-3 0 90126
2 25072 51.5888 55.7200 0008182 277.8152 82.0918 16.56579198 389
Perigee on this final rev occurs at 07:46 UTC to the SW of New Zealand
but I suspect that re-entry is more likely as it approaches the next
northbound crossing of the equator at 140 deg W (Marquesas) at 08:06. If
it survives this point, the track would carry it NE across the W USA
over Arizona (08:16) and Colorado (08:18) towards Lake Superior (08:22)
and Quebec Province (08:26). Could this be the one?
I may be able to post an update here before the end.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/