'Flash' decay predictions

Bjorn Gimle (bjorn.gimle@online.dextel.se)
10 Dec 1995 22:33:12 GMT

I have contributed to  the 'Flash' publication my  rough estimates
of decay dates  for the next  three months. Unfortunately,  I have
been to busy to respond within the short time-frame given, so both
the recent print, and November's, contained old predictions.

Here are my extrapolations  until 960315, based on  average ndot2.
For  highly   elliptic  orbits,   luni-solar  perturbations    can
significantly overtake  the drag  effect, and  make the  remaining
lifetime much longer ( or shorter).

#23453, 23674  are periodically  maneuvred, but  will decay within
about  three  weeks  if   this  is  not  done.    (  N   indicates
NASA/USSPACECOM prediction)

NORAD   Epoch    ndot2     i     e       MM      Int.Des.  Decay
23724,95,339.11,.10941083, 28.00,0015911,16.4405,95064B  , 95339.38
04966,95,342.57,.02502366, 51.36,.008011,16.2835,71016A  , 95345.68
18773,95,342.24,.00407105, 98.04,0013926,15.9327,75004HL , 95353 N <358
23315,95,342.32,.03090401,  4.19,5568891, 4.8779,94065C  , 96003 ?
23453,95,341.81,.00074750, 64.87,0039010,16.0229,94088A  , 96012 man
23662,95,342.16,.00122382, 51.66,0007393,15.7538,86017JK , 96013
20042,95,342.32,.00552410,  6.45,5553433, 4.8771,89041C  , 96014 ?
23698,95,342.22,.00149496, 51.64,0009090,15.7015,86017JT , 96017 ?<054
21794,95,342.12,.00783802, 46.49,3947247, 7.7491,91079F  , 96020 ?
05853,95,342.09,.00134690, 81.16,0009398,16.0135,72011B  , 96022
15489,95,342.54,.01288141, 46.77,2255847,11.2213,85007F  , 96025
22750,95,293.07,.00056103,098.99,  51411,14.3655,89089K  , 96035 no elsets
23674,95,342.17,.00087291, 64.90,0040353,16.0507,95051A  , 96037 man
18872,95,340.17,.00085377,028.73,0186490,15.2619,77065FW , 96040
08547,95,342.46,.00395493, 46.57,3317882, 8.9722,75123E  , 96045
22892,95,341.53,.00197009, 98.42,0201132,14.9263,83075J  , 96045 ?
21932,95,342.08,.00173106, 34.48,4716919, 6.2909,92019C  , 96046
23022,95,342.34,.00079130, 82.48,0010585,15.6070,94014D  , 96050
13786,95,342.56,.00223755, 28.42,0890479,14.1334,83006B  , 96054 ?
23459,95,342.47,.02177427, 46.50,4700220, 6.3859,94087E  , 96055
23471,95,342.00,.00058533, 51.64,0011029,15.9714,95004C  , 96066
20957,95,341.95,.00135359, 46.48,4978419, 5.8341,90102E  , 96067 ?
22870,95,342.26,.00259353, 56.45,0588318,14.9857,93063H  ,<96067!?
23633,95,341.98,.00127863, 62.82,0249025,15.5604,95039B  , 96077 ?
06895,95,342.55,.00024896, 28.80,0156624,15.5630,73078C  , 96088
11791,95,342.53,.00561643, 62.97,1504486,12.8738,80032B  , 96099
23676,95,342.55,.00034268, 82.93,0362640,15.1854,95052A  , 96099 ?
23677,95,341.20,.00046605, 82.93,0365319,15.2136,95052B  , 96099 ?
23509,95,342.58,.00065005, 65.81,0037369,15.5069,95008E  , 96100 ? Linear
23510,95,342.57,.00066928, 65.86,0036636,15.5164,95008F  , 96100 ? Linear
22110,95,341.99,.00452107, 34.57,4247388, 7.1703,92058C  , 96104
10794,95,342.46,.00108498, 26.87,2355972,10.8330,78039C  , 96117
23024,95,342.36,.00046418, 82.46,0015109,15.5095,94014F  , 96121
22584,95,342.34,.00137542, 34.73,5256270, 5.3455,93017D  , 96135
15076,95,342.35,.00069505, 46.80,5369669, 5.1643,84063E  , 96329
22016,95,342.26,.00141497, 34.75,4777300, 6.1557,92039C  , 97001 ?
21892,95,342.42,.00197388, 34.52,4271717, 7.0947,92009C  ,>97001 ? Linear
19771,95,342.27,.00099694, 46.65,4532728, 6.6078,89004E  , 97132
22659,95,342.13,.00072927, 34.86,5246393, 5.3448,93032C  , 97150 ?
23462,95,341.68,.00261121, 26.32,5805994, 4.4661,95001B  , 97200 ? Linear
19952,95,342.47,.00123104, 75.49,1814724,11.9198,89016K  , 99    ? Linear
23316,95,340.40,.00122792,  4.25,6867269, 2.8551,94065D  , 99    ? Linear
23572,95,248.01,.00261156,  7.31,6775021, 3.0668,95023B  , 99    ? Stable
23697,95,339.88,.00001542, 26.93,6718253, 3.0140,95057B  ,

------------------------------------------------------------
-- bjorn.gimle@online.dextel.se    +46-8-7428086          --
-- bjorn@tt-tech.se                +46-8-59095739         --
--(bjorn.gimle@duesenberg.se)      59.22371 N, 18.22857 E --
------------------------------------------------------------

************ Sent via DN Online (Sweden) UUCP Gateway **************