Cosmos 398 decay prediction

Mike McCants (mike@comshare.com)
Sat, 9 Dec 1995 01:36:08 -0600

I think there is a chance that the decay of Cosmos 398 may be visible
in Europe.  My predicted decay time is 3h 30m UT on Dec. 11.  This is
early Monday morning.  This could be in error by one revolution,
but I hope that the error will be less.  I do not expect to obtain any
new elements.

The following ground tracks should be close to correct.
The height will be 50 to 70 miles when the reentry takes place.

 ***  95 Dec 10/11  Sun evening/Mon morning  ***

 NCAT  4966 Cosmos 398
 Hr Mn    Lat  Long (East)
  1 41   39.5  11.2
  1 42   41.9  15.4
  1 43   44.0  19.9
  1 44   46.0  24.8
  1 45   47.7  30.0
  1 46   49.1  35.6
...
  3 11   45.4   1.0
  3 12   47.2   6.1
  3 13   48.7  11.5
  3 14   49.9  17.3
  3 15   50.8  23.4
  3 16   51.4  29.6
  3 17   51.6  35.9
...
  4 42   50.6  -0.4
  4 43   51.3   5.8
  4 44   51.5  12.1
  4 45   51.4  18.5
  4 46   51.0  24.8
  4 47   50.2  30.8

I believe the best chance is the 3:11 ground track.

The following elements can be used with Quicksat (provided that
the "Ignore shadow test" flag is set to T (true).

Cosmos 398
1 04966U 71016A   95345.12170000  .09770000  20000-2  14698-3 0     0
2 04966  51.3643  74.5680 0010000  31.0900 329.1460 16.48312700     0

The actual time should be within 2 minutes of the prediction.

The following is a nominal prediction for Rainer Kracht:

For lat 53.770, long 9.663 East

***  95 Dec  11  Mon  *** Times are UT ***

4966 Cosmos 398    
 H  M  S  Al  Az  Dir  Mag Dys F  Hgt  Rng  EW Phs  R A   Dec
 3 12 25  12 187  279  0.9   0 1  107  426 1.6  69  836 -24.3
 3 12 36  13 180  278  0.7   0 1  107  403 1.7  74  9 7 -23.6
 3 12 48  13 172  275  0.6   0 1  107  387 1.7  79  939 -22.5
 3 13  0  14 164  272  0.6   0 1  107  378 1.7  86 1013 -20.9
 3 13 11  14 156C 269  0.6   0 1  107  377 1.7  92 1047 -19.1
 3 13 23  14 147  266  0.8   0 1  107  383 1.5  99 1120 -16.9
 3 13 34  13 139  264  1.0   0 1  107  396 1.4 105 1151 -14.7
 3 13 46  12 132  261  1.3   0 1  107  416 1.2 111 1220 -12.5
 3 13 57  11 126  259  1.7   0 1  107  441 1.0 116 1245 -10.4

Mike McCants
mike@comshare.com