Titan IV launch on 5 Dec.
Ted Molczan (molczan@neocom.ca)
Tue, 5 Dec 1995 00:45:08 -0500
According to Phil Chien, the launch window
runs from 3 PM EST to 5:30 PM EST, on 5 Dec,
or 20:00 to 22:30 UTC. The following is the
speculation/prognostication I sent him this
evening. I would be interested in your ideas
on this.
Here is a summary of southbound orbital plane crossings of known
candidate constellations:
5 Dec 95 UTC
-----------------
00:46 NOSS 2-1
02:10 Lacrosse 2
16:50 NOSS 2-2
18:10 KH 11-8
21:40 USA 86
6 Dec 95 UTC
-----------------
00:33 NOSS 2-1
01:56 Lacrosse 2
As I see it, the best candidates are:
Lacrosse 3 - liftoff at the start of the window (20:00 UTC on 5 Dec) would
place it almost exactly 90 deg west of Lacrosse 2, which seems to be a
logical plane spacing. A late launch would result in a reduced spacing, but
this could be remedied by lingering in a lower transfer orbit for a time - which
is a demonstrated capability of Lacrosse (at least when shuttle launched).
Launching at the very end of the window (22:30 UTC) would come close to
providing spacing similar to that of the two KH-11 planes, i.e. the amount of
Earth rotation plus orbit precession during to orbital periods, 49.7 deg. A long
shot, I know. Note that the failed launch on 2 Aug 93 occurred at almost the
exact time to produce such a spacing, except to the east of Lacrosse 2, instead
of to the west. It seems like a stretch to think that SAR platforms would benefit
from a similar spacing to visual/IR platforms, but I wanted to include this so
that I will look like a genius (well, at least a clairvoyant) if it actually comes to
pass.
NOSS 2-3 - liftoff at 20:33 would place it 60 deg east of NOSS 2-2 and
60 deg west of NOSS 2-1, i.e. right down the middle of the 120 deg angle
separating NOSS 2-1 and NOSS 2-2. Of course, I do not know why they
would not want to bisect the 240 deg angle on the other side, and obtain
three equally spaced planes.
USA 86 - its plane *does* pass southbound over the pad during the window,
but this is a very new spacecraft, which seemed to be operating normally
this past summer. Its 7 year old sister would seem to be a more likely
candidate for replacement. Also, the closing of the park to the southeast
would be unnecessary if the destination was a sun-synchronous orbit.
Of course it may be none of the above - the spooks have provided plenty of
surprises in recent years.
bye for now