RE: Tecsar obs, are was it a bird = unid sat

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Fri Aug 30 2013 - 13:11:47 UTC

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    Kevin Fetter asked:
    
    > I made some obs, and noticed the inclination is what tecsar was in.
    > 
    > So was this tecsar, are did I chase a bird, which looked like a satellite.
    > 
    > 99999 99 999A   1775 G 20130830091044023 15 25 0436402-030094 37 S
    > 99999 99 999A   1775 G 20130830091101540 15 25 0510899-040298 37 S
    > 
    > UNID
    > 1 99999                   13242.38265671 0.00003544  00000-0  50000-4 0    00
    > 2 99999  41.6072 300.2445 0007554 263.7911 197.9024 15.55638941    09
    
    It is almost certainly Tecsar (08002A / 32476). Below is the TLE you derived from observations you made earlier this
    year:
    
    1 99999U          13050.00276201  .00001979  00000-0  50000-4 0    00
    2 99999  41.0184   0.4671 0007478 274.0885 166.7292 15.38912165    07
    
    Propagating that TLE (using SGP4) to the epoch of last night's suspected sighting, yields RAAN of 298.7 deg, almost
    identical to that of the TLE from last night. Given the uncertainty in rate of decay and the object's manoeuvrability, I
    would have reached the same conclusion even if the RAAN differences had been several tens of degrees.
    
    I suggest refining your orbit with a fixed value of inclination of 41.02 deg, since it has remained nearly constant at
    that value since launch, unaffected by its manoeuvring.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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