Re: 12044A / 38744: altitude increasing?

From: Bob Christy (bob@zarya.info)
Date: Sat Aug 11 2012 - 11:34:55 UTC

  • Next message: Kevin Fetter: "Re: 12044A / 38744: altitude increasing?"

    In the light of SpaceTrack's switching around of IDs and increasing 
    number of element sets published, I've revisited my reasoning as to 
    which ID is which launch component. I agree with Ted but by have 
    approached it from a different angle.
    
    I still think it is the APT that is venting fuel or gas:
    http://www.zarya.info/Gallimaufry/120707ProtonFailure.php
    
    Bob Christy
    
    
    On 10/08/2012 22:18, Ted Molczan wrote:
    > With the release of the epoch 12223.71 TLEs, USSTRATCOM has made several ID re-assignments:
    >
    >     Original          New
    > 12044A / 38744  12044C / 38746
    > 12044C / 38746  12044D / 38747
    > 12044D / 38747  12044A / 38744
    >
    > Names have yet to be listed; my guesses:
    >
    > 12044A Ekspress-MD2
    > 12044B Telkom-3
    > 12044C Breeze-M
    > 12044D Breeze-M APT
    >
    > Over the past few years, the APT nearly always followed the Breeze stage in the ID assignments.
    >
    > Between epoch 12221.48123720 and 12223.71265127, 12044C's mean motion changed negligibly, and several TLEs had negative
    > decay terms, with decreased mean motion. Leaking fuel seems the likely explanation.
    >
    > Ted Molczan
    >
    >
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