Updated elements

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Fri Aug 10 2012 - 13:01:35 UTC

  • Next message: alberto rango: "4641 SATOBS 09 AUG 2012."

    Cees Bassa, Kevin Fetter, Alberto Rango, Mike Waterman and Brad Young, contributed observations used to update the
    following elements.
    
    Cees reported observations of what he suspected is 80019D, but C appears to fit best, based on RAAN. Mike Waterman
    observed it last, on 2012 May 13 UTC, and I used his observations in this analysis. Prediction time uncertainty is about
    2 min per 14 revs from epoch.
    
    1 11731U 80019C   12223.03181470  .00007950  00000-0  57290-3 0    05
    2 11731  63.3362 282.4980 0938101  12.4856 349.7760 13.49660401    09
    
    Brad observed ORS 1 running more than 3 s early relative my earlier TLE. Apparently, its rate of decay is much greater
    than indicated by earlier observations. Shortening the arc yields this result:
    
    ORS 1                                                    415 X 419 km
    1 37728U 11029A   12223.07724961  .00034443  00000-0  58204-3 0    09
    2 37728  40.0000 157.3530 0003287 136.1793 223.9279 15.50666839    00
    Arc 20120807.84-0810.1 WRMS resid 0.012 totl 0.007 xtrk
    
    If we can determine the mean altitude that it maintains against drag, then we can produce a TLE suitable for long-term
    predictions, which would be helpful in recovering the object after spells outside of visibility windows.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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