RE: ST OBS July 31 & Aug 1, 2012 w/ unid

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Fri Aug 03 2012 - 04:24:33 UTC

  • Next message: Joseph Remis: "38739 Decay"

    Scott Tilley wrote:
    
    > Nice thinking Ed!  I'll try and get another obs of this tonight as the
    > sky has cleared.  I would imagine with the SAR LUPEs that my circular
    > approximation may be good enough to pick this up again. Thoughts?
    
    Your TLE is pretty good, given the short arc, but I believe that the mean motion will prove closer to 15.27 rev/d.
    
    The previous observation was by Brad Young, on 2012 Jun 04 UTC. It was running several minutes late relative month-old
    elements, indicative of a small reboost. Mike McCants has issued three different elsets with the epoch on June 4. The
    latest, issued on July 7, is closest in time to your observation:
    
    1 32750U 08014A   12156.08374059  .00005000  00000-0  19026-3 0    00
    2 32750  98.1619  13.4704 0004000 263.6504  96.3494 15.26781616    00
    
    Fixing the rate of decay, and propagating forward, I obtained the following fit to your and Brad's observations:
    
    Sar Lupe 4                                               478 X 483 km
    1 32750U 08014A   12214.20185749  .00005098  00000-0  19005-3 0    09
    2 32750  98.1524  76.9109 0004000 316.8172  43.2746 15.27461308    05
    Arc 20120604.11-0801.23 WRMS resid 0.029 totl 0.014 xtrk
    
    I expect it to pass within one minute of this TLE, per day since epoch.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
    _______________________________________________
    Seesat-l mailing list
    http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Aug 03 2012 - 04:25:45 UTC