Re: Decay of Molniya 1-79

From: Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
Date: Thu Aug 25 2005 - 10:41:00 EDT

  • Next message: Denis: "Re: Decay of Molniya 1-79 20949"

    Report time: 14:00 UTC
    
    Molniya 1-79 (#20949)
    
    The last released five ELSETs shows with conventional prediction methods a decay
    on 22 May 2006 +/- 15 days. Forecast programs for high eccentricity objects based
    on a "Special Perturbation" model delivers a reentry around 05 September +/-07 days.
    These type of objects - especially Molniyas - are very difficult to predict. It
    depends very strong from the solar activity and from the behaviour during the low
    perigee passages (break up of some appendages ect.) It is also unusual that
    SPACETRACK shows a very large decay window for its last released TIP message.
    
    Harro
    
    Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
    
    Berlin, Germany
    
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