Ang: Re: Decay of Molniya 1-79 20949

Date: Thu Aug 25 2005 - 07:21:16 EDT

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "TJM obs of 2005 Aug 25 UTC"

    (What is EOO?)
    The 4+ SpaceTrack elsets for Molniya 1-79 on day 214 have a MM just 
    over 2, a perigee just over 100 km, and a drag term near .0036
    The elset for day 235 has MM~5.59 and perigee just 2 km lower, 
    but drag reduced to .000005!
    This can partially be explained if drag tore away the solar panels, 
    but to make Mike's INT2x produce the new MM, I have to set the initial 
    drag about 10x larger.
    This results in a perigee of 70 km, and drag .125 for day 238.
    To account for a one degree diff in RAAN, I must assume that drag
    was lower (?) initially, so the dip in perigee occurred at a
    later time.
    >EOO using a 2 day old tle predicts Molniya 1-79 (20949) not to decay for some 
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