RE: Unknown 09 August 2005

From: Ted Molczan (seesat@rogers.com)
Date: Thu Aug 11 2005 - 10:16:45 EDT

  • Next message: Alberto Rango: "4541 PPAS 19 - 21 - 24 Jul 2005"

    Greg Roberts wrote:
    
    > (1) Cannot find a match for this in my element database updated last
    >     night. Looks like the inclination is about 62.5 degrees and RA
    >     Node about 53 degrees. Height of satellite when seen was 
    >     about 1500 kilometres so the standard magnitude works out a
    >     t0 around +6.8
    
    Almost anything could be fit to such a short arc.
    
    I could fit a typical U.S. Molniya orbit:
    
    1 70000U          05221.76000488  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
    2 70000  63.4000  59.5279 7185867 270.0000  15.4711  2.00600000    07
    
    Residuals are small, but could be better, and certain combinations of a higher
    inclination and lower argument of perigee fit much better:
    
    1 70000U          05221.76000488  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
    2 70000  71.5881  67.2699 7236776 269.0000  15.3216  2.00600000    09
    
    1 70000U          05221.76000488  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
    2 70000  69.5147  65.2837 7080209 260.0000  16.2775  2.00600000    02
    
    1 70000U          05221.76000488  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
    2 70000  67.4216  63.0807 6952299 250.0000  17.5294  2.00600000    04
    
    1 70000U          05221.76000488  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
    2 70000  66.4314  61.9588 6907254 245.0000  18.2127  2.00600000    03
    
    The above four yield about the same path at about the same time, tonight.
    
    Unfortunately, this fits very well too, and the pass would occur far later:
    
    1 70000U          05221.76000488  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
    2 70000  66.3786  61.8079 6714664 245.0000  19.9629  2.20000000    01
    
    For all I know, the orbit could be that of a NOSS. If I find the time, I will
    try to find whether or not one could fit.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
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