Cosmos 1030 decay alert for Australia and New Zealand

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Tue Aug 17 2004 - 00:12:06 EDT

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    Cosmos 1030's very low perigee height, a little over 100 km, and its high
    eccentricity, make it likely that decay will occur near perigee. Since the
    latitude of perigee is 21 S, the Southern Hemisphere is most likely to see the
    show. Much less certain is the longitude.
    
    Alan Pickup's and USSTRATCOM's latest predictions indicate decay over Eastern
    Australia on 2004 Aug 17 near 15:00 UTC; however, the prediction uncertainty
    remains substantial. Should it decay one rev earlier, then New Zealand may see
    it; one rev later would favour Western Australia.
    
    Observers in the region should look for updates on OIG's Decay Prediction Text
    Query and on Alan Pickup's site (URL and latest prediction appended).
    
    For realistic predictions, use Alan's latest Satevo-predicted elset. Make
    certain that you command your ephemeris generator to report passes in which the
    satellite is in Earth's shadow. Also, if your program has minimum elevation
    settings, set them as low as you are able to observe from your location.
    Satellite decays occur at low altitude; therefore, you are more likely to see
    one at low elevation than overhead.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    Object: #11015 = 78- 83 A = Cosmos 1030
    Soviet missile early warning satellite, part of the Oko constellation.
    It was launched on September 6, 1978.
    (Body dia. : 1.7 m   Body length : 2 m   Launch mass : 2400 kg)
    
    Notice prepared: 2004 Aug 16 19:00 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SCC        Aug 12 01:01     Aug 16 01:15 +-2d        51.6 S    13.5 E
    SCC        Aug 13 22:42     Aug 16 22:53 +-2d        24.7 S    17.6 E
    SCC        Aug 15 21:40     Aug 17 09:46 +-22h       61.6 S    73.3 W
    SCC        Aug 16 14:16     Aug 17 14:43 +-15h       30.7 S   141.9 E
    
    SatEvo     Aug 12 17:00     Aug 17 05:03 +-1.8d
    SatEvo     Aug 13 18:45     Aug 18 12:57 +-1.9d
    SatEvo     Aug 14 18:35     Aug 17 15:09 +-1.0d
    SatEvo     Aug 15 16:05     Aug 17 16:50 +-18h
    SatEvo     Aug 16 19:00     Aug 17 15:00 +-7h        44.3 S   149.7 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1030      4.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   12       2121 x 97 km
    1 11015U 78083A   04229.74541016  .72777381 -33419-5  17037-2 0  9762
    2 11015  61.7677 132.4111 1351239 204.5770 148.5200 13.40109167192561
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 1030      4.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   12       1722 x 94 km
    1 11015U 78083A   04230.03801108 1.03239781  29686+0  17991-2 0 99727
    2 11015  61.7288 131.5350 1117478 204.4467 149.8214 13.95992824192605
    Cosmos 1030      4.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   12       1275 x 92 km
    1 11015U 78083A   04230.31843415 1.41560081  70594+0  18850-2 0 99726
    2 11015  61.7008 130.6418 0837886 204.5624 151.2065 14.63091259192640
    Cosmos 1030      4.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   12       848 x 89 km
    1 11015U 78083A   04230.51932464 2.19804134  24105+1  20639-2 0 99723
    2 11015  61.6750 129.9353 0553909 204.6554 152.5933 15.32465134192671
    Cosmos 1030      4.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   12       659 x 88 km
    1 11015U 78083A   04230.58404083 2.91414181  58340+1  22228-2 0 99724
    2 11015  61.6618 129.6897 0422766 204.6880 153.2288 15.64921112192682
    Cosmos 1030      4.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   12       391 x 86 km
    1 11015U 78083A   04230.64723357 5.48412893  33840+2  27160-2 0 99721
    2 11015  61.6483 129.4361 0230491 204.7219 154.1558 16.13041613192690
    
    Note: I suspect that decay is most likely following perigee on the
    penultimate of my SatEvo-predicted revs. This puts it in the vicinity
    of Tasmania after crossing the Australian mainland from the
    northernmost part of Western Australia at 14:51 UTC to Adelaide at
    14:57 and Melbourne a minute later.
    
    
    
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