Cosmos 1030's very low perigee height, a little over 100 km, and its high eccentricity, make it likely that decay will occur near perigee. Since the latitude of perigee is 21 S, the Southern Hemisphere is most likely to see the show. Much less certain is the longitude. Alan Pickup's and USSTRATCOM's latest predictions indicate decay over Eastern Australia on 2004 Aug 17 near 15:00 UTC; however, the prediction uncertainty remains substantial. Should it decay one rev earlier, then New Zealand may see it; one rev later would favour Western Australia. Observers in the region should look for updates on OIG's Decay Prediction Text Query and on Alan Pickup's site (URL and latest prediction appended). For realistic predictions, use Alan's latest Satevo-predicted elset. Make certain that you command your ephemeris generator to report passes in which the satellite is in Earth's shadow. Also, if your program has minimum elevation settings, set them as low as you are able to observe from your location. Satellite decays occur at low altitude; therefore, you are more likely to see one at low elevation than overhead. Ted Molczan http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ Object: #11015 = 78- 83 A = Cosmos 1030 Soviet missile early warning satellite, part of the Oko constellation. It was launched on September 6, 1978. (Body dia. : 1.7 m Body length : 2 m Launch mass : 2400 kg) Notice prepared: 2004 Aug 16 19:00 UTC Decay predictions: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SCC Aug 12 01:01 Aug 16 01:15 +-2d 51.6 S 13.5 E SCC Aug 13 22:42 Aug 16 22:53 +-2d 24.7 S 17.6 E SCC Aug 15 21:40 Aug 17 09:46 +-22h 61.6 S 73.3 W SCC Aug 16 14:16 Aug 17 14:43 +-15h 30.7 S 141.9 E SatEvo Aug 12 17:00 Aug 17 05:03 +-1.8d SatEvo Aug 13 18:45 Aug 18 12:57 +-1.9d SatEvo Aug 14 18:35 Aug 17 15:09 +-1.0d SatEvo Aug 15 16:05 Aug 17 16:50 +-18h SatEvo Aug 16 19:00 Aug 17 15:00 +-7h 44.3 S 149.7 E Latest elset: Cosmos 1030 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 12 2121 x 97 km 1 11015U 78083A 04229.74541016 .72777381 -33419-5 17037-2 0 9762 2 11015 61.7677 132.4111 1351239 204.5770 148.5200 13.40109167192561 SatEvo prediction: Cosmos 1030 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 12 1722 x 94 km 1 11015U 78083A 04230.03801108 1.03239781 29686+0 17991-2 0 99727 2 11015 61.7288 131.5350 1117478 204.4467 149.8214 13.95992824192605 Cosmos 1030 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 12 1275 x 92 km 1 11015U 78083A 04230.31843415 1.41560081 70594+0 18850-2 0 99726 2 11015 61.7008 130.6418 0837886 204.5624 151.2065 14.63091259192640 Cosmos 1030 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 12 848 x 89 km 1 11015U 78083A 04230.51932464 2.19804134 24105+1 20639-2 0 99723 2 11015 61.6750 129.9353 0553909 204.6554 152.5933 15.32465134192671 Cosmos 1030 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 12 659 x 88 km 1 11015U 78083A 04230.58404083 2.91414181 58340+1 22228-2 0 99724 2 11015 61.6618 129.6897 0422766 204.6880 153.2288 15.64921112192682 Cosmos 1030 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 12 391 x 86 km 1 11015U 78083A 04230.64723357 5.48412893 33840+2 27160-2 0 99721 2 11015 61.6483 129.4361 0230491 204.7219 154.1558 16.13041613192690 Note: I suspect that decay is most likely following perigee on the penultimate of my SatEvo-predicted revs. This puts it in the vicinity of Tasmania after crossing the Australian mainland from the northernmost part of Western Australia at 14:51 UTC to Adelaide at 14:57 and Melbourne a minute later. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe/Unsubscribe info, Frequently Asked Questions, SeeSat-L archive: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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