PROGRESS RB decay observed !

From: Harro Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Sun Aug 31 2003 - 09:01:00 EDT

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    Report time 12:25 UTC
    
    2003-039B (#27874) Soyuz 3.Stage (PROGRESS RB)
    
    Since 30 August, 22:36 UTC, we have not seen any messages from
    OIG, the "usual" weekend break ....
    
    But Firat Barlas informed me about his observation from
    Uludag-Bursa (Turkey) 40°08' N, 29°08.5°E :
    "...we saw a bright flare on nearly same trajectory following 
    ISS and Progress cargo ship. It broke into dozens of pieces
    20 degrees over NE horizon (05:14 Local time, GMT +3).
    We thought that is was the predicted Progress reentry."
    
    Firat was absolutely right. Based on the preliminary "last"
    released ELSET 03242.782... (SFX 114, ap 012) MPM+REENTRY
    showed the decay on 
    31 August, 02:20 UTC +/- 11 minutes (46.07°N, 43.77°E)
    ascending over South Russia (10 km Geodetic Altitude).
    
    For Firats observation I found with this ELSET an altitude of about 95 km. This is - I believe  - around 20 km too high. 
    But time and travel direction are exactly on track.
     
    A final analysis will follow after release of SCC'S last
    message and ELSETs...
    
    Harro
    
    Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
    Berlin, Germany
    
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