Re: ISS Transit prediction problems?

From: satcom (john@satcom.freeserve.co.uk)
Date: Sun Aug 31 2003 - 04:47:28 EDT

  • Next message: James: "SDP4"

    Hi all,
    
    Having captured six transits in the last few months , all on video , I am
    finding that  the track can be slightly "south" of the line predicted.Not
    critical , unless you happen to have positioned yourself on the northern
    edge of the ground corridor , and are using a small FOV.
    I put this down to the fact that keps are usually a couple of days old .The
    reason I say this is that when I did the Lunar Transit , the keps had only
    been updated within hours , and that one was right on the button .
    
    I'm using Tom's alert system as an initial heads up , then switching to
    CalSky to decide where I need to be.
    All positioning is done using a Garmin GPS , with timings set to GPS
    synchronisation , and a radio controlled timepiece.Before leaving for the
    location I make a detailed drawing of the predicted path from CalSky ,
    checking also any sunspot activity details on Spaceweather .com . Whenever
    possible I try to position myself so that the station will pass between or
    near to an active group.
    
    Tom , I think your visual pass yesterday was a high elevation one and I
    agree how big the station seems during these transits....in excess of 10" or
    so.
    Once everything is set up , and the camera is running , all you can do is
    wait , and hope :O)  With half a dozen transits in the bag , I'm tempted now
    to try and move up to a higher magnification , as I did on June 24th , but
    when it comes to the crunch , I'd rather get the whole thing on film ,  than
    risk just one or two frames.
    Perhaps the best way forward would be to get a second scope lined up , one
    with small FOV , the other full disk.
    
    If anyone is interested in testing out the accuracy of Tom's predictions ,
    or CalSky , and comparing them to actual results , you should be able to
    save my animations from the Satcom site
    http://www.satcom.freeserve.co.uk/isstrans.htm * ,to disk ,  then run them
    in Windows fax viewer . That way they can be magnified to full size.The last
    one , from the 29th , is particularly handy for this purpose as the pass
    takes a couple of seconds and  runs between to sunspots.
    Again a little south of the predicted track.
    
    I think we have to congratulate both Tom , for his alert service and Arnold
    for CalSky.....without these programmes we would not be getting the chance
    to see these magnificant events !
    
    Best wishes,
    
    John.
    * If any problems are encounterered , email me and I'll send a full size
    animation direct.
    
    
    
    
    ----- Original Message -----
    From: "Thomas Fly" <thomasfly@j2ee-consultants.com>
    To: "SeeSat-L" <SeeSat-L@satobs.org>
    Sent: Sunday, August 31, 2003 5:33 AM
    Subject: ISS Transit prediction problems?
    
    
    > Hi Willie,
    >
    > Somebody else (from the UK) had a similar complaint- he was using "The
    Starry
    > Night Backyard."  I checked with CalSKY, however, which confirmed the
    > prediction.  I also checked this prediction with CalSKY, and again it
    confirms
    > the transit- see the attached CalSKY HTML file.
    >
    > The point about the azimuth being wrong seems to be valid- that's what you
    get
    > for not living in the Northern hemisphere!  (Maybe it should be 123
    degrees west
    > from south?)
    >
    > By chance, I observed my first ISS solar transit today!!! It was touch &
    go, as
    > big clouds gobbled up the sun twice, while I was setting up. I'd taken
    along an
    > ancient Radio Shack "Time Cube" (that receives the U.S. government atomic
    time
    > broadcasts), as my cue to click my Kodak DC290 in 2 fps burst mode, only
    to
    > realize that the road I was parked along went to a local water treatment
    plant,
    > and had a high-voltage power line that drowned out WWV for 100 feet to
    either
    > side!  I projected a 5" diameter image of the sun onto a slide projector
    screen,
    > which gusts of wind conveniently knocked into my camera tripod & telescope
    a
    > couple times...
    >
    > At some point, I stuck my head inside the car to read (after my pupils had
    > dilated enough) that it was now 1:06 PM (transit predicted at 1:07:00),
    and as I
    > got back, I thought I saw a speck go across the sun... but a few seconds
    later,
    > an upside-down T went zipping across, startling me for a number of
    reasons,
    > including how large it appeared to be!
    >
    > While I was on my predicted (roughly 48 hours in advance) centerline-
    > iss-transit.sourceforge.net/transits/matches-1p.txt - the transit was
    about 1/4
    > of a solar radius to the southwest, implying that the centerline actually
    was
    > about 0.3 miles to the southwest.  Curiously, yesterday evening CalSKY had
    > indicated that the centerline was about 0.25 miles northeast of my
    prediction.
    > (Roland Stalder used CalSKY to fine-tune his aiming, which was
    exceptionally
    > well-centered, despite the relatively small field-of-view of his movie...
    just
    > good luck?)
    >
    > You can sign up for ISS fly-over alerts (either "all" or "visible only")
    at
    > liftoff.msfc.nasa.gov/RealTime/JPass/PassGenerator
    >
    > You can also make use of
    >
    spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/SSapplications/Post/JavaSSOP/JavaSSO
    P.ht
    > ml  When I enter 33.9375 S, 18.4736 E, it indicates a "solar separation"
    of 0.3
    > degrees at 16:00:40 (and an azimuth of 303 degrees east from north, which
    would
    > be 123 degrees west from south :)
    >
    > When I click on "SkyTrack," it gives me a "NASA SkyWatch" applet that
    shows the
    > ISS nailing the sun, while Venus looks on.
    >
    > And after all of that, I believe I see your problem- the times given are
    your
    > local time, not UT!
    >
    > Cheers,
    > Tom
    >
    >
    > ----- Original Message -----
    > From: "Willie Koorts"
    > To: "ISS Transit" <iss-transit@j2ee-consultants.com>
    > Cc: "Greg Roberts"
    > Sent: Saturday, August 30, 2003 10:26 AM
    > Subject: ISS Transit prediction problems
    >
    >
    > Hi Tom
    >
    > Thanks for the regular alerts.  Unfortunately, I have not had the
    > opportunity to try any since they happened almost always on inconvenient
    > times for me.
    >
    > The last one you sent again is due in Cape Town while I'm doing standby
    > duty at our observatory outstation in Sutherland.  I sent the data to a
    > friend who found some problems with your predictions.
    >
    > Attached are his findings.  Could you please investigate?
    >
    > Thanks
    > Willie
    >
    >
    > ---------- Forwarded message ----------
    > Date: Sat, 30 Aug 2003 08:20:43 +0200
    > From: Greg Roberts
    > To: Willie Koorts
    > Subject: Fw: ISS Solar transit
    >
    > I checked the ISS transit alert- something is wrong-- if time is 16hr UT
    the
    > sun cant have an azimuth of 123 degrees - it must be 360-123= 237 and even
    > that doesn't look right as I don't think the suns that far south yet...am
    I
    > reading the prediction wrong - see its for Monday 1st Sept.
    >
    > Cheers
    > Greg
    >
    >
    > ---------- Forwarded message ----------
    > Date: Sat, 30 Aug 2003 10:10:21 +0200
    > From: Greg Roberts
    > To: Willie Koorts
    > Subject: Re: Fw: ISS Solar transit
    >
    > Hi
    >
    > I've done a check with GUIDE - and element set dated Aug 29. ISS is
    nowhere
    > near the sun- in fact well below the horizon. The position of the sun at
    > 16h00m38s UT is azimuth 283.18 deg, elevation 4.65 degrees so something
    > wrong somewhere - hope I haven't made a mistake but it definitely looks
    like
    > the prediction supplied is garbage :-))
    >
    > Cheers
    > Greg
    >
    >
    >
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