Decay watch: 2003 August 30

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Aug 30 2003 - 12:19:52 EDT

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    I have updated my Decay Watch page with my prediction for the decaying
    Progress M-48 rocket. In summary:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27874 = 03- 39 B = Progress M-48 Soyuz rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Aug 30 13:47     Aug 31 02:53 +-8h         9.8 S   168.9 E
    SatEvo     Aug 30 16:00     Apr 31 01:30 +-3h        34.0 S   146.6 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Progress M-48 Soyuz r                            181 x 165 km
    1 27874U 03039B   03242.53834241  .07070332  12369-4  67143-3 0    97
    2 27874  51.6361   5.6386 0012550  77.1904 283.0503 16.37427422   257
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (ends)
    Progress M-48 Soyuz r                            154 x 144 km
    1 27874U 03039B   03242.90365026  .23401638  53814+0  48268-3 0 90094
    2 27874  51.6337   3.5702 0007515  78.7336 281.3509 16.46443429   319
    Progress M-48 Soyuz r                            143 x 135 km
    1 27874U 03039B   03242.96427820  .41524012  17457+1  44737-3 0 90094
    2 27874  51.6327   3.2235 0005689  78.9923 281.0717 16.50160410   320
    
    Note: I estimate that this will decay southbound over the S Pacific
    on the orbit following the one given by the final SatEvo-predicted
    elset above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
    
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