Decay watch: 2003 August 15

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Aug 15 2003 - 15:00:00 EDT

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Taken from my updated Decay Watch page:
____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27857 = 03- 35 B = Cosmos 2399 Soyuz rocket

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
SCC        Aug 12 23:32     Aug 13 07:11 +-5h        15.4 N    46.7 W
SatEvo     Aug 15 18:45     Aug 16 05:22 +-4h        10.3 N   158.1 E

Latest elset:
Cosmos 2399 Soyuz r                              205 x 147 km
1 27857U 03035B   03227.67462104  .07022779  77074-5  35767-3 0   259
2 27857  64.9433 200.0840 0044362  64.4947 296.0717 16.36144649   508

SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 2399 Soyuz r                              195 x 142 km
1 27857U 03035B   03227.79673044  .11109811  66948-1  37987-3 0 90256
2 27857  64.9425 199.6147 0040260  64.4375 295.9780 16.38931940   520
Cosmos 2399 Soyuz r                              168 x 131 km
1 27857U 03035B   03228.04030459  .22283126  35525+0  30293-3 0 90254
2 27857  64.9402 198.6725 0028311  64.3229 295.9691 16.46312071   568
Cosmos 2399 Soyuz r                              156 x 125 km
1 27857U 03035B   03228.10098660  .32605205  87039+0  30295-3 0 90255
2 27857  64.9393 198.4359 0023244  64.2942 295.9456 16.49546365   577
Cosmos 2399 Soyuz r                              136 x 116 km
1 27857U 03035B   03228.16151028  .68941110  37113+1  33700-3 0 90259
2 27857  64.9378 198.1984 0015131  64.2653 295.8907 16.55142795   583

Note: The latest elset shows this running only 0.5 sec late against
the prediction I posted yesterday. I estimate that this will decay
near the end of the final SatEvo rev above. This puts it northbound
over the western Pacific. SCC has not followed up on the first
erroneous prediction it issued on the 12th.
_____________________________________________________________________


Alan
-- 
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
         *


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