Decay watch: 2003 August 13

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Aug 13 2003 - 17:00:22 EDT

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SCC has issued its first (incorrect) decay warning for the Cosmos 2399
rocket. The following is taken from my Decay Watch page - check there
for further updates on this decayer.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27857 = 03- 35 B = Cosmos 2399 Soyuz rocket

Notice prepared: 2003 Aug 13 20:35 UTC

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SCC        Aug 12 23:32     Aug 13 07:11 +-5h        15.4 N    46.7 W

SatEvo     Aug 13 20:35     Aug 16 08:37 +-18h

Latest elset:
Cosmos 2399 Soyuz r                              281 x 166 km
1 27857U 03035B   03225.76790662  .02665413  73119-5  69100-3 0    99
2 27857  64.9496 207.2884 0086618  63.4953 297.5073 16.18606911   191

SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 2399 Soyuz r                              274 x 164 km
1 27857U 03035B   03226.01490631  .03068692  32979-2  72198-3 0 90094
2 27857  64.9491 206.3638 0083172  63.3822 297.4675 16.20129155   234
Cosmos 2399 Soyuz r                              260 x 161 km
1 27857U 03035B   03226.50823159  .03660581  49965-2  69780-3 0 90094
2 27857  64.9480 204.5108 0075515  63.1557 297.6144 16.23428942   310
Cosmos 2399 Soyuz r                              243 x 155 km
1 27857U 03035B   03227.00045124  .04621859  84518-2  59233-3 0 90099
2 27857  64.9467 202.6522 0066894  62.9286 297.7524 16.27464752   394

Note: The earliest elsets for this look very suspect and may account for
the error in the first SCC decay prediction. The rocket enters eclipse
just beyond northern apex at 62 deg N near midnight local time. Eclipse
exit occurs southbound near 32 deg S before dawn.
_____________________________________________________________________


Alan
-- 
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
         *


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Next message: Alan Pickup: "USA 32 obs on Aug 13"
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