Meteor 1-2 just might decay over Europe about 24 hours from now. The
following is taken from my Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #4119 = 69- 84 A = Meteor 1-2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Aug 19 04:47 Aug 21 02:56 +-1d 76.0 S 136.1 E
SatEvo Aug 19 21:25 Aug 20 21:21 +-7h 21.9 S 2.7 W
Latest elset:
Meteor 1-2 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.8 v 12 192 x 177 km
1 04119U 69084A 02231.73476128 .04048431 -95274-6 67581-3 0 5633
2 04119 81.1247 291.7492 0011338 254.4475 105.5538 16.33135177721128
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
(..ends)
Meteor 1-2 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.8 v 12 140 x 134 km
1 04119U 69084A 02232.77245427 .29773864 88655+0 31711-3 0 95638
2 04119 81.1188 290.2929 0004719 250.2910 109.6581 16.50764906721292
Meteor 1-2 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.8 v 12 124 x 120 km
1 04119U 69084A 02232.83298991 .91513108 95982+1 42945-3 0 95634
2 04119 81.1174 290.2062 0002871 250.0438 109.9253 16.56587909721308
Note: My prediction is for this to decay northbound over the South
Atlantic near the end of the final SatEvo-predicted rev above. If it
continues in orbit, it will cross Europe from near Marseille,
France, at 21:37 UTC to Bremen, Germany, at 21:39 and just E of
Oslo, Norway, at 21:41. The uncertainty is several orbits and
SpaceCom estimates a later decay.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #21122 = 91- 10 E = Cosmos 2133 aux motor
Final analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Aug 18 13:00 Aug 18 10:49 +-1m 39.0 S 117.6 E
SatEvo Aug 18 14:20 Aug 18 09:22 -5+90m 45.7 S 163.6 E
Final elset:
Cosmos 2133 aux motor 260 x 96 km
1 21122U 91010E 02230.34616819 .89384500 99484-5 48476-3 0 443
2 21122 46.5279 16.1768 0125298 229.3381 129.0397 16.35459062120136
Note: The final elset shows it running 59 sec late against yesterday's
prediction. I have this decaying following perigee on the above orbit,
approaching southern apex near the South Island of New Zealand.
It is possible that it survived to decay almost one rev later, in line
with the SpaceCom analysis.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Aug 19 2002 - 17:55:15 EDT