Re: 3 flares,a pair and another close encounter

From: Björn Gimle (b_gimle@algonet.se)
Date: Sat Aug 17 2002 - 09:53:06 EDT

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "TJM obs of 2002 Aug 17 UTC plus elements"

    [Files attached to Steve]
    
    I prefer AllCola, also by Rob Matson, which runs ALL satellites in one file
    against all in another (or the same file, and/or from a certain elset in the
    first file to end-of-file)
    [My version of] COLA does not seem to be Y2K-ready.
    
    I extracted three elsets to Steve.tle; (my) typical input is in Steve.txt, and
    the result in Steve.col.
    #20847 is 88.1 km from #25406, its orbit is 84.5 km from (below) 25406 because
    it is  16.5 degrees from the nadir of 25406 at  8/17/2002  2:59:03.28 UTC.
    
    With a partial satbase.tle (from #25406 - steve2.txt) I get the closest
    encounter:
    ------------------------------------------
    Target satellite: #25615
    Name: USA 141 (ATEX)   3.0  0.0
    Perigee:   741.40 km   Apogee:   757.08 km
    Velocity at perigee:  7.4866 km/sec
    Satellites in range:    3
    ....
     8/18/2002  6:30:48.48 20847 FengYun 1B r K   2.5     7.0/   4.1   52.7  +2.13
    ....
    
    I do not know of any program predicting encounters with three or four
    satellites - I believe there is at least one which can predict appulses of two
    satellites. SkyMap can do satellite + star, Sun, Moon or planet.
    
    My approach for estimating probability is predicting (graphically with SkyMap) #
    of crossings over a section (say 30 degrees) of the track over a longer time
    (say 20 minutes), and reduce that number to the 7 seconds or so separating the
    USA 160 pair.
    
    Over one such section/interval near the 50 degree  culmination 2002-08-20
    22:11:05 local I found 18 crossings of satbase.tle objects predicted brighter
    than +10. So, for 7 seconds that gives a 10% chance ! Further from culmination
    the tracks are denser, so the chances are greater, and for a "total" pass of 150
    degrees this gives >> 50% ! (correct me if I am wrong)
    
    ----- Original Message -----
    ...
    > Close encounters are interesting. Can some one help me with COLA program, I
    > never have been able to get it to work.I think this program finds close
    > encounters, not sure. Also what is the probability or is there a way to
    > predict if another sat would cross in between the visual track of USA 160 A
    > and C or thru one of the NOSS triplets?
    
    
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