Decay watch: 2002 August 9

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Aug 09 2002 - 13:39:03 EDT

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "Decay Forecast - Update"

    The latest updates from my Decay Watch page.
    
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    Object: #229 = 62-  2 D = Tiros 4 r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Aug  9 16:14     Aug 10 03:23 +-7h        31.9 S    39.2 E
    SatEvo     Aug  9 17:25     Aug 10 03:30 +-4h        47.2 S   102.8 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Tiros 4 r                                        200 x 198 km
    1 00229U 62002D   02221.54903838  .08675555  11539-4  22928-2 0  6479
    2 00229  48.2255 196.5592 0001116 188.8041 171.6803 16.27586425157002
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (..ends)
    Tiros 4 r                                        157 x 155 km
    1 00229U 62002D   02222.03812003  .42217641  13928+1  18492-2 0 96473
    2 00229  48.2215 193.6170 0001327 191.4963 168.5006 16.43796912157085
    Tiros 4 r                                        131 x 130 km
    1 00229U 62002D   02222.09876373 1.90930259  26779+2  12599-2 0 96471
    2 00229  48.2201 193.2451 0000927 191.8367 168.1609 16.53405167157091
    
    Note: I have this decaying near southern apex, well to the SW of Perth,
    Australia, on the last of these SatEvo orbits.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19764 = 88-113 H = Cosmos 1985 r
    
    Final analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Aug  7 19:25     Aug  7 19:10 +-2h         6.4 S   118.4 E
    SatEvo     Aug  8 20:20     Aug  7 18:34 -10+40m     23.9 S    43.2 W
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 1985 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v  6.0       125 x 114 km
    1 19764U 88113H   02219.74004694  .23625884  24344-5  91722-4 0   408
    2 19764  73.4903   4.2787 0008655 238.3945 121.6590 16.57692817763621
    
    Note: Another elset appeared after my previous note, showing this
    running only 0.1 sec early against the previous prediction at the start
    of what I expected to be the final orbit. I show this decaying
    southbound over Brazil a little more than halfway around this rev.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26928 = 01- 42 B = Atlantic Bird 2 Ariane 44P rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Aug  9 16:25     Aug 11 11:55 +-1d         6.5 S    60.4 E
    SatEvo     Aug  9 17:20     Aug 11 15:40 +-15h
    
    Latest elset:
    Atlantic Bird 2 Ariane 44P r                     2926 x 108 km
    1 26928U 01042B   02221.62477949  .47711102 -63670-4  20575-2 0  3758
    2 26928   7.2935 326.0030 1784668 220.4390 124.9453 12.37647114  9383
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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